Dem
47
GOP
53
Last week, Donald Trump threw a temper tantrum and refused to sign the bipartisan housing bill passed by overwhelming majorities of both chambers of Congress unless the SAVE Act is also passed. The President has described the housing bill as a "yawn" and says he doesn't care if it becomes law or not. That's just fodder for Democratic campaign ads, at this point, because it's going to become law if he takes no action. The House was still meeting up through today, and both chambers are holding pro forma sessions, primarily to stop Trump from ramming through a few real nutters as recess appointments. So, an un-overridable pocket veto is off the table. Trump could try an actual veto, but he'd probably be overridden, which would be embarrassing.
That does not mean that Trump, and some of his enablers in the House, are giving up on the SAVE Act, however. Given that the housing bill has already passed, their next target is the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Republicans love the military, and this is their opportunity to lavish the Department of Defense with cash, to the tune of over $1 trillion. It is somewhat hard for members of Congress to vote against the NDAA, because then they get accused of hating soldiers, mom, apple pie, etc., and being willing to make America less safe.
Still, there's only so much leeway there. In an effort to thread the needle, Mike Johnson tried yesterday to pull off some parliamentary sleight of hand. The trick he tried to use is called MIRVing, wherein two bills are passed separately by the House, but are then merged into one bill before being sent to the Senate. Lord knows why he thought this would work, but what actually happened was that Senate Democrats voted against the maneuver because they will not support the SAVE Act (even if that also means voting against the NDAA), while a bunch of hard-right Republicans voted against the maneuver because they know it would be easy for the Senate to just dump the SAVE Act stuff and pass the NDAA by itself.
So, Johnson's attempt to pull a rabbit out of the hat failed 198-224. The hard-right Republicans are also blocking any other legislation from coming to the floor. With no particular hope of a quick resolution, Johnson sent his Conference home for the July 4 holiday. They won't be back in Washington for 2 weeks.
Trump, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and the rest of the crazypants brigade can flex their muscles all they want, but as we've written a hundred times, there's just no way the SAVE Act can get through the Senate. It might not even be able to get through the House (again) at this point. And even if it did somehow pass, even supporters of the bill, such as Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), concede there's probably not enough time to implement the bill's provisions, even if it passed immediately. And, of course, "immediately" definitely won't be happening, since both chambers are in recess until mid-July.
Will Trump and the MAGA Militia bow to reality, and decide this is a fight best left for another day? It would certainly make life easier for Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) if they would do so. That said, passing SAVE also wasn't realistic multiple months ago, when Trump started his current crusade, so why would he change course now? And if, as we note above, the President adds passing the Birthright Citizenship Act to his list of obsessions, then the celebrations of July 4 might prove to be nothing more than an anemic preview to the kind of fireworks we'll see once Congress is back in session.
One other quick note before we leave this subject behind. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), who is one more vote in support of whatever Johnson puts on the floor, was back at work yesterday. He explained that he was being treated for severe depression. Good on him for being honest, and for getting the treatment he needed. That pretty much makes this a non-story going forward, since he can hardly be faulted for his absence. That said, if he was willing to tell the truth anyhow, why did he wait so long? That made a mountain out of what could and should have been a molehill, and put a lot of people, including Kean's colleagues and staffers, in a tough position. Part of the price of public service, unfortunately, is that you don't always get the right to privacy that private citizens do. His district has a PVI of EVEN and Democrats have to be careful about this, but his opponent is surely going to make a point about how he or she is there 100% for the district, no ifs, ands, or buts. (Z)