Jul.01

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Enough with the Hand-Wringing and Pearl-Clutching

Last week, three House candidates backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) won their races. There was much rending of garments and gnashing of teeth from both Democratic operatives and from the media, with the general theme that "the right-wing media is going to have a FIELD DAY with this."

Perhaps the most ridiculous media piece we saw came from Mediaite's Alex Griffing. Under the headline "NYC Democrats Just Hobbled Their Party in National Elections for Years to Come," he writes:

[Darializa Avila Chevalier's] primary victory is an undeniable watershed moment in the Democratic Party, raising the question of just how far to the extreme left it will swing as a reaction to Trump's reelection and chaotic second term. Chevalier's general election campaign and likely November win will serve to only further divide Democrats, lurch the party toward a nationally toxic extreme, and give the GOP a boost at a moment when it desperately needs one.

While not quite as extreme, there were plenty of other media reactions like this (see here, here and here for a few more examples).

As to Democratic operatives, the most eye-rolling of those responses probably came from the well-past-his-sell-by-date James Carville, who decreed that Chevalier "is not a Democrat" and that she should not be seated as part of the House Democratic Caucus when she (inevitably) wins her race. Carville went on to explain that the Democrats are the party of pluralism and inclusiveness. It would seem he thinks the best way to be inclusive is... to exclude some people. For other examples of Democratic operatives losing their minds, see here, here and here. Note that all of this coverage was prompted by what happened in New York last week; undoubtedly there will be another wave of stuff like this today, following the victories of Melat Kiros and Manny Rutinel in Colorado yesterday.

At this point, we would like to pause and remind everyone of two Civics 101 lessons:

1. The fellows who wrote the Constitution deliberately set things up so that communities could, by and large, elect representatives to Congress that reflect that community's outlook. George Washington, James Madison, Benjamin Franklin & Co. knew full well that a district in rural Georgia would favor a very different type of representation than a district in downtown New York City. This was a feature, not a bug.
   
   
2. The fellows who wrote the Constitution also set things up so that the most extreme representatives (and Senators) can't accomplish much of anything. They might be able to drag their party a little bit leftward or rightward, but they basically have to fall in line or else be left out. If there are any doubts on this point, consider how much luck Anna Paulina Luna, et al., are having getting the SAVE Act passed. And that is WITH the enthusiastic backing of the sitting president.

And now, let us make two observations about present-day political dynamics:

1. It is true that Fox and other right-wing outlets are going to try to turn these various left-wing Democrats into cartoon villains; that was happening before the elections even took place. The ostensibly non-right-wing media does not need to legitimize that propaganda, or to give it more oxygen, by talking endlessly about it. Let Fox, Newsmax, OAN, etc. do the work themselves.
   
   
2. Any Democrat running for office in a swing district needs to find a way to credibly and convincingly say, "A candidate in a deep-blue district a thousand miles from here does not speak for me." If a candidate cannot succeed at this, they have failed Politics 101 and do not deserve to be elected.

We recognize that none of us who produce this site lives in a district where a moderate Democrat is likely to be derailed by talk of the scary brown liberal running for office halfway across the country (or where a moderate Republican is likely to be derailed by talk of the scary Nazi-curious fascist running for office halfway across the country). So, perhaps we are speaking out of turn.

That said, we do know two things. First—and it was true in Colorado last night as well as in New York and elsewhere—primary votes from voters 18-34 are up across the country. Maybe if these lefty candidates are getting young people to the polls—and for primaries, no less—that will compensate for whatever moderates are lost to Fox propaganda. Heck, it may even presage a realignment.

Second, we recall reading a bunch of "Oh, noes!" stories in 2018, when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was elected. And the right-wing media certainly did their level best to turn her into a villain on the order of Satan, or Darth Vader, or the Chicago Bears. And you know what happened in 2020? The Democrats won the trifecta.

By the way, not all of the media disagrees with us. For example, here's CNN's Bakari Sellers:

NYC election results have lessons to be learned but Mamdani is not the "face" of the Dem party and NYC is not indicative of a larger pattern.

A few months ago yall were telling us nyc was swinging right now it's not?

The fastest rising 2028 contender is a Jewish Dem from Georgia. And DSA got mollywhopped all throughout the south. Facts.

And here's Slate's Jim Newell:

[Avila Chevalier's win] is not the end of the world for national Democrats, as candidates in difficult races should have no problem stating they don't support her when asked. Besides, Republicans have a bit of a cry-wolf problem here, in which they've been calling any and all Democrats "communists" for so long that the public may yawn once someone approximating the real thing comes around. What could be a problem is if Democrats nationally get in their heads that this sort of candidate is a replicable winner across the board, when she essentially could have won only in this specific city with its well-organized Democratic Socialists of America. Indeed, with Mamdani as mayor and New York's old political machines broken down, DSA wants to become New York City's new establishment. But we will believe it when Queens and Staten Island go DSA.

What it amounts to is that our view—and we are clearly not completely alone on an island here—is that there are a fair number of political pundits and Democratic operatives who need to recall the lesson of Chicken Little, and to stop declaring that the sky is falling when the evidence does not yet support that conclusion. (Z)