Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's many policies to help his "oppressed" white supporters has had an effect that has not been covered well by the (largely subservient) media. It has enraged and engaged Black voters around the country, especially in the South. Turnout in primaries has surged. Key Senate races in states with many Black voters, such as Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, as well as in competitive House districts, could be decided by a few percent and a huge Black turnout there could be crucial. Early voting in South Carolina surged to almost presidential-year numbers. The votes for Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), for example, went up 50% relative to the last midterm election. This is the reason South Carolina ultimately decided not to redistrict the state. About a quarter of the total population of South Carolina is Black. In Georgia, it is 33%. In North Carolina is it 22%. Most Black voters in the South are Democrats, so a high turnout helps the blue team.
Republicans have dismissed the idea of high Black turnout as a fantasy. NRCC spokesman Reilly Richardson said: "Republicans will continue to dominate in South Carolina by remaining focused on the issues that matter to voters: lowering the cost of living, improving community safety, and securing the border." Gerrymandering may help Republicans in some House races, but it doesn't help in statewide races. Split Ticket, which builds election forecasting models, sees an 8-point Democratic lead now. Downballot, a data firm, says that Democrats have had a 13-point edge in over 100 special elections in 2025 and 2026. If that holds in November, even some "safe" Republican seats could fall.
What Democrats need to do now is keep Black voters engaged until November. This will take some investment and it is sometimes hard to convince Democratic leaders and donors to put money into the South. One way to do that is to field candidates in every race, something Democrats have rarely done. This year in South Carolina, for example, there is a Democrat on the ballot for every federal and state office. Those candidates will go around campaigning, and even if they don't win their race, they can get Black voters to the polls to vote in other races that may be closer. (V)