Dem
47
GOP
53
G. Elliott Morris commissioned Verasight to run a poll asking about a possible impeachment of Donald Trump next year if Democrats get a House majority. In June, a survey showed that 53% of Americans say there are grounds for Democrats to impeach Trump and 39% say there are not. This is important because an impeachment is unlikely to get two-thirds of the Senate to vote for conviction, but an impeachment is really a battle for public opinion. If Democrats capture only the House, there could be extensive hearings in the House about the articles of impeachment. If they also capture the Senate, the House hearings could be short but there could be a real trial in the Senate, with evidence, witnesses, cross examination, and the whole nine yards, forcing senators up in 2028 to vote on multiple charges. If the senators vote "not guilty" but the public is convinced by the trial that Trump is guilty as hell, those votes will become big issues in 2028.
Here is a list of senators up in 2028. The names on it include Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Ted Budd (R-NC), John Fetterman (D-PA) and Ron Johnson (R-WI). Murkowski's, Budd's, and Johnson's seats are potential Democratic pickups. Warnock's and Fetterman's seats are potential Republican pickups. If Kelly runs for president, he can't run for reelection to the Senate, and his open seat will be a potential Republican pickup.
The Verasight poll had an open-ended question about what grounds there could be for impeachment. The top six (in order) were:
The first three are valid points and definitely meet the constitutional test of high crimes and misdemeanors. Despite Jerry Ford's comment that an impeachable offense is whatever 218 members of the House think it is, the next three don't cut the mustard. We very seriously doubt that those would be articles. The last two, especially, are about things that were known before the election and the voters apparently didn't care about them much. Impeachment is really meant for behavior in office, not behavior before being elected. Interestingly, at the bottom of the list were lying (9%), the 1/6 insurrection (6%), and ICE (3%). Since an impeachment is primarily about driving public opinion (which affects how representatives and senators vote), making the process about things the public thinks are serious offenses is crucial. Also, the first three are easy to understand and easy to prove. (V)