Jul.07

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Everything Trump Touches Turns to Lead

Anyone who has been following the World Cup already knows most or all of this, but events conspired to put some of the worst characteristics of both FIFA and Donald Trump on display over the past few days.

It begins with the U.S. Men's National Team's (USMNT) game against Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday of last week. At the 60-minute mark, the United States' Folarin Balogun stepped on the ankle of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Tarik Muharemović. You can view the footage here, in real speed and slow-motion replay:

In real time, it was clear that it was a football play, and there was no intent to injure. But FIFA uses a video assistant referee (VAR), who is allowed to call down to the field to suggest the on-field referee review certain plays. The VAR made the suggestion here, and the on-field referee reviewed the footage. In slow motion, it looks far, far worse than it does in real time. And so, the on-field referee gave Balogun a red card, which ostensibly carried with it three consequences: (1) Balogun was ejected from the game, (2) the U.S. team had to play the rest of the game down one player, and (3) Balogun was suspended for the United States' next match.

It was very clearly an incorrect decision by the VAR, who should never have gotten involved. You don't have to take our word for it; here are pieces from TalkSport, Football360, the BBC, The Atlantic and ESPN that say the same thing. To his credit, Balogun accepted his fate with grace and with class, and did not complain. Meanwhile, FIFA officials made clear, many times, that the decision was not reviewable, and there was no option but for Balogun to serve his one-game suspension.

At this point, in the event it is of interest, let us do a sidebar on five reasons that international football culture just does not mesh with American sports culture, which may help explain why the world's favorite sport has struggled to catch on in the U.S.:

1. Low-Scoring: This is a famous one. The people who watch the four major North American sports are used to at least somewhat regular scoring. In the NHL, the average game has about 6.5 goals. In MLB, the average game has about 9 runs. In the NFL, the average game has about 45 points. In the NBA, the average game has well over 200 points. If you're used to these kinds of totals, it's not so easy to adjust to a sport that often produces scores of 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. It does not help that when a team in association football gets a lead, they tend to slow down the pace of play, which can turn a game into a slog.
   
   
2. Time: To a greater or lesser extent, America's most popular sports all have well-known strategies that kick in when a team is managing a limited amount of time (or outs) remaining. Often, when it comes to these strategies, seconds matter. But in association football, the amount of time left is somewhat vague. Players don't really know exactly how much extra time there will be at the end of each half, nor do they really know exactly when the extra time will expire. This lack of precision runs very contrary to American sporting culture and, quite frankly, raises the possibility of (corrupt) manipulation of the clock by a dishonest referee.
   
   
3. Who Reviews the Reviewers?: From the North American sports fan's perspective, it is reasonable that a play that might be judged wrong in real time can be reviewed. Pretty much all the major sports embraced that reality several years ago, because it's very easy to make errors in real time, and if people are spending all their time talking about how [GAME X] was decided by [WRONG CALL Y], that's not great for the sport. What is unreasonable, again from the North American sports fan's perspective, is that the VAR, who is also operating in real time, and so might also make errors given the time pressure, cannot be reviewed. The four major North American sports all allow decisions about extreme fouls/ejections/suspensions to be reviewed by the league office.
   
   
4. No Replacement: Again, from the North American sports fan's perspective, it's... wild that a player who gets ejected cannot be replaced. This carries with it the implication that a foul committed in the 10th minute of an association football match is roughly eight times worse than the same foul committed in the 80th minute. The NBA, NFL and MLB all allow an ejected player to be replaced immediately. The NHL does have a penalty box and power plays, but even then, a player (or his replacement) comes back after 5 minutes of game time (or, in the case of a 2-minute minor penalty, after a goal is scored by the team on the power play).
   
   
5. Flopping: Even non-North American fans are clearly unhappy about the tendency for association football players to behave as if they've been shot by a cruise missile the moment a player from the other team makes the barest of contact. But North American fans really dislike flopping (an issue the NBA has been trying to deal with for years).

This is not to pass judgment as to which system is better or worse, merely to lay out that the divide between association football and (most) American sports is actually pretty large, and not so easy to wave away.

Anyhow, there was much carping in the U.S. about the loss of Balogun, who was probably the country's best player in this tournament, given that Christian Pulisic has been playing hurt. And over the weekend, Donald Trump swung into action. He placed a call to FIFA head Gianni Infantino, the same fellow who bestowed the FIFA Peace Prize on the President. And after that phone call, Infantino announced that, whaddya know, the rules do allow the suspension to be... suspended. Someone at FIFA managed to find an obscure provision of the rules, last used in 1962, that allows for a suspension to be postponed for up to 1 year. So, Balogun was allowed to play, after all.

Let us now review five ways that this maneuver is a microcosm of the mind of Donald Trump:

1. What, Me Worry (about Corruption)?: We have written that Trump might be the world's most corrupt individual, while FIFA might be the world's most corrupt organization. It is not a surprise, in the slightest, that Trump and Infantino would conspire together to achieve their desired ends.
   
   
2. The Ends Justify the Means: Trump famously cheats at golf. He also enters "tournaments" that are run by his club, and that feature players who want to make nice with him. And when he "wins" a golf game, or a golf tournament, he gets on his social media platform for cheaters (and we mean that on several levels) and brags about it. All that matters to him is the winning; how you get there is immaterial.
   
   
3. He Doesn't Really Understand Sports: We do not propose that this is true of all sports fans, but it's true of most—they do not want to win by any means possible. They want to win fair and square, because otherwise that win is not nearly as satisfying and comes with a permanent asterisk. It is true that some MAGA sports fans praised Trump for his initiative (most obviously former USMNT player and current commentator and MAGA fanatic Alexi Lalas). However, for the majority of American sports fans, the thrill was gone. Even if the U.S. had won yesterday, that victory, and any subsequent victories, would have been tainted. If the U.S. had somehow claimed the cup, the story worldwide wouldn't have been "U.S. triumphs for first time" or "CONCACAF (North/Central America and the Caribbean) can now go toe-to-toe with UEFA (Europe) and CONMEBOL (South America)," it would have been, "Well, yeah, it helps a lot if your president is in bed with the leader of FIFA." The 2017 Houston Astros could say a few useful things on this point.
   
   
4. Might Makes Right: Similarly, Trump was OK with special treatment because he believes that he, and the U.S., deserve special treatment. This message is obvious enough that even the Council on Foreign Relations, not generally known for its sports coverage, has weighed in with a piece headlined "The Balogun Red Card Reversal Shows That the U.S. Plays By Its Own Rules."
   
   
5. He's a Hypocrite: Balogun, the player Trump "saved," is both brown and a birthright citizen. Trump, of course, despises brown birthright citizens... unless they are of use to him.

As it turns out, even with Balogun, the USMNT played a lousy game yesterday and got blown out by Belgium, 4-1. That means that whatever benefit Trump might get with some voters will presumably be very short lived. At the same time, it's also possible that yet another example of corrupt behavior, in yet another domain, will help to solidify the "Trump is corrupt" narrative that Democrats look like they might run on in 2026 (as we wrote yesterday). At least, that is the argument that CNN's Aaron Blake made in a piece headlined "Crypto, red cards and Trump's corruption problem." When we first saw the headline, we thought it might be a stretch, but we think there's some merit in the observation that "Trump ran a shady crypto scheme" could be a little harder to grasp than "Trump arranged to bend the rules of a major sporting competition for the benefit of his team."

What's clearer is that a great deal of the goodwill that was generated during the tournament has evaporated. The U.S. has gone from being gracious and welcoming hosts to being the ugly Americans. This is ALL OVER social media. Of course, Trump has really never understood soft power, so it's no surprise that he did not foresee this and/or that he didn't give a damn. (Z)