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It is hard to take anything Donald Trump says either literally or seriously. However, he is now like a cornered animal and could soon do something unpredictable, so we should keep an eye on him. Iran has regularly been striking at ships in the Strait of Hormuz and in return, the U.S. has been attacking Iran. This tit-for-tat, not-war-not-peace, has been going on since the memorandum of understanding was signed. Both sides accuse the other one of violating it.
The most recent tweet from the U.S. Central Command was on Tuesday, and stated that U.S. forces hit 80 Iranian targets with precision munitions. The targets include air defense systems, command and control networks radar sites, and anti-ship missile sites. Nevertheless, Iran still has thousands of cheap, long-range Shahed drones
Yesterday, following all of this exchange of fire, Trump declared that the ceasefire is over. He also said that the negotiations can continue, but they are a "waste of time." J.D. Vance, who is the lead negotiator for the U.S., is surely happy to know that nothing he says or works out with the Iranians matters. The problem here is that all Trump cares about is getting gas prices down and all Vance cares about is escaping with his presidential hopes intact. Neither one cares about Iran or the war.
Then, yesterday afternoon, Trump ordered more strikes. The attacks were on three port cities and intended to reduce Iran's capability to threaten ships in the Strait. That is not going to help. The smallest drone Iran uses, the Shahed-131, has a range of over 400 miles. The largest drone, the Shahed-136, has a range of over 1,200 miles. What Trump has learned from years in the real estate business is that his opponents prize economic success above all else, and if you can hurt them economically, they give in. However, the Iranian regime is not in the real estate business and is willing to accept huge economic losses for political reasons. It cannot be bombed into submission. Trump doesn't understand that (yet)
At the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump said: "I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum." (English translation: The damn Iranians won't submit to my will.) Actually, he originally said he was tired of dealing with the "Islamic Republic of Japan," but people figured out what he meant, since Japan is not Islamic and is not at war with the U.S., while Iran is both of those things. Shortly after Trump said that, the price of oil shot up, with the Brent crude hitting $79. That is not far above the pre-war price, despite the fact that the flow of oil through the Strait is not back to normal and many production facilities in neighboring countries have been damaged by Iranian drones.
In reality—which Trump considers to be optional—he has few cards. One of his few cards was the ability to reimpose the sanction on Iran selling oil. He did that, but: (1) Iran may continue to sell oil anyway, forcing Trump to take military action to stop it and (2) to the extent it succeeds, it will drive up oil prices. The national average now is $3.74/Gal., about a dollar a gallon higher than it was in January.
Incidentally, when Trump flew back from the NATO conference, he switched planes. To get to Turkey, he took Qatar Force One, but to get home, he took the old Air Force One. His official explanation is that Qatar Force One is going to be taken on a tour of U.S. military bases in Europe. This makes no sense, since (1) if a tour is needed, can't the old Air Force One (ostensibly now the backup plane) serve just as well, and (2) is Trump really likely to give up his shiny new toy just a week in?
The truth is that the rush job that got Qatar Force One "ready" for service may have cost $400 million-plus, but it did not cause the plane to be equipped with the necessary security measures. And since Trump was going to be traveling in the vicinity of Iranian airspace, well, that's not a chance he wanted to take. He somewhat admitted to this, albeit in braggadocio form, saying that he's "Iran's #1 target." That's probably not correct (we'd guess Benjamin Netanyahu), but he's certainly high on the list. Trump also said that he is not worried about dying, because he's just doing his job. That is a flat-out lie. If there's one thing that is certain about The Donald, it's that he's a giant narcissist. And if there's one thing a narcissist can't bear, it's the thought of a world without them in it.
It is hard to tell what is going to happen next with Iran. The Iranians have shown that they are capable of absorbing a vast amount of punishment from the air without yielding. This frustrates Trump no end. In his mind, if a country is subjected to a merciless bombardment, they are supposed to surrender. But the Iranians are not one inch closer to a surrender now than on the day before the war started. Vance can try to keep negotiating, but it is doubtful the Iranians will give in on anything. Then what? (V & Z)