Dem
47
GOP
53
Insurance premiums on the Affordable Care Act marketplace are set to go up by an average of 14% next year—on top of a double-digit jump this year. This could cost families thousands of dollars more next year. Insurers say that the cost of health care services has gone up and the expiration of ACA subsidies has forced them to raise premiums.
Given that people are already very upset about affordability, this is going to make it worse. This could work for the Democrats, especially since a major part of the cause was specific Republican legislation (reducing the subsidies). However, the enrollment period runs from Nov. 1 to Jan. 15 in most states. The election is Nov. 3. Very likely, many people will not be aware of their surging premiums until after they vote, and certainly not if they vote early or by absentee ballot. Democrats could point out that premiums will go up, but for many people that won't register until they see what they will personally have to pay.
The midterms aside, when people see their new premiums, healthy young people with not too much money may decide to wing it and not have health insurance. As long as they don't get sick, all is well. But if they get sick or have an accident, they could be in deep trouble. This year, ACA enrollment is 19 million, down from 22 million a year ago. Next year is will probably be lower still.
However, come January, all people using the ACA will know what their premium will be. Many will be mad as hell. While that won't matter for 2026, Democrats could already start talking about it for 2028. Affordability is not going to go away as an issue and higher health insurance costs are likely to be a big issue in 2028 as well and one the Republicans won't be able to escape due to lucky timing. (V)