Dem
47
GOP
53
It will be very difficult for Republicans to think of something to campaign on this fall. They can't talk about affordability because everyone is furious about it and most people blame them. They can't talk about foreign policy successes because there haven't been any "wins" (other than swapping one dictator for a different one in Venezuela) and the war in Iran isn't very popular. ICE is a selling point, but only among the hard-core base. The stock market is doing well but that is of interest to only people who have stocks, and increasingly many affluent stock-owning suburbanites are now Democrats. Jobs? More companies are laying off people than hiring new people.
So what is left? Republicans think they have a magic bullet. They are going to call the Democrats COMMUNISTS. Proof? Well, five Democratic Socialists won Democratic primaries in deep blue districts in deep blue states. Will it work? The GOP is field testing the idea now by running focus groups to see what people think of communists. The testing is ongoing, but some results are in. It seems that calling Democrats communists energizes the Republican base. If they can get every last one out there to vote, that is very valuable. On the other hand, it does not resonate with independents or young voters. It might actually resonate with some Democrats, but these are voters who like socialism and want more of it, which is not the effect the Republicans hope to achieve.
Since June 23, when three DSA members won primaries in NYC, Donald Trump has invoked "communism" 81 times, sometimes calling the victors hardcore, godless communists. The late Sen. Joe McCarthy would be proud of him. Trump doesn't need more focus groups. His gut knows enough. He is going to run against communists. He has always believed in a base-only strategy. He thinks that if he can get every last one of his supporters to the polls, he will win, even without independents.
The handful of Democrats who are actually socialists could try to come back by saying: "If you believe in taxing the rich, cutting wasteful military programs, and expanding social programs like Social Security, Medicare, and free school lunches, then you are a socialist." But Trump may be right that "communist" is such a loaded term that while an American politician might be able to survive being called a socialist, being labeled a communist could be fatal.
Of course, Republicans have been labeling Democrats as communists since the 1950s, with mixed success. In some specific districts, "communist" is particularly deadly. In Florida, where many people have escaped one communist regime or another in South America, calling someone a communist brings up memories of how it was back home before they escaped.
More generally, this strategy may not work, though. Amy Koch, a Republican strategist, said that communism has bad associations with voters over 55, but not with younger ones. Trump is 80, so he is very attuned to the Cold War and communism. This could put him out of step with the majority of voters. On the other hand, DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene thinks that voters care about kitchen table issues, not ideological labels. So the fall could consist of attacks on communism vs. attacks on affordability. (V)