Dem
47
GOP
53
The news broke very late last night, so details are obviously scarce and subject to revision. However, after what is being described as a "brief and sudden illness," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) reportedly died yesterday at the age of 71.
In a somewhat eerie coincidence, given the deathwatch currently focused on Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Graham suffered a cardiac arrest at his residence in Washington. He was taken by ambulance to a nearby hospital, and was declared dead on his arrival there.
Graham was in good enough health that he was scheduled to appear on Meet the Press this morning. And on Friday, he was in Ukraine meeting with Volodymr Zelenskyy. Long plane flights and blood clots can certainly go hand-in-hand, so, in the absence of details, it's fair to wonder if the Friday plane flight and the Saturday coronary are related.
Obituaries are a time to reflect on a person's career, and when we consider Graham's, we do not think history's judgment will be kind. He had become one of the biggest show horses in the Senate (probably in competition with Ted Cruz, R-TX, for top honors), and tended only to introduce "message" legislation, like the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 and the No Retaining Every Gun In a System That Restricts Your Rights Act. Even when he got a bill passed, it tended to be "show" legislation, such as the Laken Riley Act.
Meanwhile, the thing that you really think of first when you think of Graham is that he was a political chameleon, one who shifted positions in a fashion that was usually ham-fisted, and often quite rapid, based on the way the political winds were blowing. Most obviously, when Donald Trump first ran for president, Graham famously slurred him as a "jackass" and a "race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot," and said that "If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed...and we will deserve it." Of course, once Trump took control of the GOP, Graham became one of his most subservient lapdogs (and it is Graham who sponsored the bill that would, if passed, lavish money on Trump's "won't cost taxpayers a dime" ballroom).
In contrast to the (potential) mess in Kentucky, Graham's seat won't be vacant for long. According to the South Carolina law governing Senate vacancies, Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) will pick someone to take Graham's place on an interim basis. The National Conference of State Legislatures claims that South Carolina is one of the states that requires the governor to pick from a list submitted by the legislature, but we can find no confirmation of that anywhere else, including in the actual South Carolina civic codes. In any event, McMaster is going to appoint a Republican, and probably a placeholder Republican, to avoid influencing the upcoming election. Nikki Haley seems a plausible option, unless she's so radioactive in the Palmetto State that McMaster wants nothing to do with her.
Whoever McMaster chooses, he's going to choose fast, so the GOP is not down another vote in the Senate (in addition to McConnell's). By law, that person can serve until January 3 of next year. However, given that there is a regular U.S. Senate election scheduled for November, it is likely that as part of the deal, the appointee will agree to resign as soon as their successor's victory is certified. This lets the new senator get a running start on both the job and on seniority. The most recent example here is Laphonza Butler, who reigned her appointed post on December 8, 2024, so that Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) could assume the seat immediately.
A bit more tricky is the process of replacing Graham as his party's nominee for the upcoming regular Senate election. He was not wildly popular, having taken just over 56% of the vote in his primary earlier this year, and the South Carolina GOP is somewhat divided. South Carolina law governing primary vacancies says that the filing period for candidates will open the second Tuesday after the nominee's "death, disqualification, or... resignation," and then will close the Tuesday after that, and then a special primary election will be held the second Tuesday after the filing deadline. That means that candidates for the nomination can formally file their paperwork between July 21 and 28, and then the special primary will be held on August 11.
But remember, South Carolina is a Southern state, and like most Southern states, it has a rule that the winner of any election has to get at least 50% of the vote plus one. Even when a sitting senator was on the ballot, there were four challengers. You have to imagine that wannabe senators will come out of the woodwork, now that the nomination has been plunged into chaos (just like what's happening in Maine). And so, there will probably be a runoff, which would take place on August 25.
And who might toss their hat into the ring? We are hardly dialed in to South Carolina politics, but it's probable that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who will be out of a job come January, will take a shot. She's got a huge ego, and will probably convince herself that her distant fifth-place finish in this year's SC gubernatorial primary was just a fluke or fake news or something. Given what's happening in Maine, where nearly every one of this year's failed gubernatorial candidates is now going to take a bite at the Senate apple, it seems fair to assume that Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who lost the South Carolina gubernatorial nomination in a runoff, will jump in, too. Third-place finisher Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and fourth-place finisher Rom Reddy, who can self-fund (good!) but is brown (not good!, at least in SC) are possibilities, as well.
Beyond Mace and Norman, the state's House delegation has four other Republicans, and any of them might try for a promotion. They are Reps. Joe Wilson, Sheri Biggs, William Timmons and Russell Fry. That said, you can probably cross Wilson off the list. He's 78, which is a little long in the tooth to start a Senate career, especially when you're trying to replace a guy who just died of a heart attack at 71. Plus, Wilson is defending the least-red district of the four, at R+7, and might need to spend his time campaigning in his district, rather than traveling around the whole state. The other three, by contrast, are 56, 42, and 41, and represent districts that are R+12, R+11 and R+12, and so are safe even if they don't campaign. South Carolina does not have a resign-to-run law, and Senate seats there tend to come open once every generation or so. These things being the case, why not spend a few weeks taking your shot and seeing what happens? Even if it doesn't work out, campaigning statewide can build the foundation for a future promotion, like to governor. That is a job that, unlike the U.S. Senate seats, comes open at least once every 8 years in South Carolina.
Beyond those folks, we suppose it's possible that Haley will jump in, since she also has a giant ego and a tenuous sense of her own unpopularity. If she did jump in, that would presumably take appointment as the interim replacement off the table. Former governor Mark Sanford is also still alive, and is 66, which is at least a few years younger than 71. Entrepreneur Mark Lynch, who actually has some name recognition as the owner of/spokesperson for the Jeff Lynch Appliance Center, was the second-place finisher in the GOP U.S. Senate primary, with just shy of 30% of the vote, and might like another shot. The president of the South Carolina state Senate is Thomas Alexander, and the speaker of the South Carolina state House is Murrell Smith. Folks in those jobs often try to move over to the U.S. Congress, since they've pretty much reached the ceiling in their current jobs.
And despite the fact that we've spent three paragraphs listing 13 potential candidates, this is not an exhaustive list. Any of the statewide elected Republicans could declare, including Secretary of State Mark Hammond, State Treasurer Curtis M. Loftis Jr. and Commissioner of Agriculture Hugh E. Weathers. Project 2025 architect Paul Dans almost mounted a bid earlier this year, before deciding Graham was too tough an opponent. Former lieutenant governor André Bauer did the same song and dance as Dans. And at least one Wikipedia user had an interesting idea, right after the news broke:
We don't think that would be legal, though Thurmond is about as alive right now as he was for his last term in the Senate, so who knows. In any event, when an election is dangerously close to a crapshoot, and you only have to spend 2-4 weeks campaigning, it makes all the sense in the world to jump in and see where the cards fall. So, it could very well be even wilder and woollier than the race to replace the other Graham, up north.
And finally, if you squint your eyes very tightly, and look at this race very carefully, could the seat now be in play? South Carolina hasn't sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998 (Fritz Hollings, then running for reelection to his sixth term). So, don't bet the rent money on it. That said, the Democratic candidate is already set—it's pediatrician Annie Andrews, who is pretty moderate, and seems to be a pretty good campaigner. She will be able to sit back and watch for a month or so while, presumably, a bunch of Republicans tear themselves from limb to limb.
Meanwhile, South Carolina's PVI is only R+8, because the state has so many Black voters. And right now, heading into what looks to be a wave year, Black voters are pissed. There was only one recent poll of the Graham vs. Andrews matchup, but it had the Senator leading by just 3 points, 48% to 45%. Again, just one poll, and on top of that, it was done by a Democratic pollster, so it should be taken with many grains of salt. That said, it's not completely out of line with the two much older polls of the race, one of which had Graham up by 5 (47% to 42%), and the other which had him up by 6 (42% to 36%).
It's hard to know if a non-Graham Republican will bleed a few points because they are not incumbent, or if they'll gain a few because they don't have Graham's baggage, or if those things will cancel each other out and they'll pull about the same numbers. Still, it is at least plausible that if the Republicans end up with a crazypants candidate—and short-in-duration, splintered primaries are the ideal breeding grounds for crazypants candidates—Andrews could make a real race of this thing.
The ideal thing for the GOP would be if the NRSC Chair, who just so happens to be South Carolina's other senator, Tim Scott (R), could step in, anoint the most electable candidate, and clear the field. Democratic voters hate that, but Republican voters don't mind so much. The problem here is that we doubt Scott has that kind of power, given the many giant egos involved and the enormous temptation presented by a de facto shortcut to the U.S. Senate.
In any event, we'll be watching closely, of course, just like we are watching events in Maine. We also can't even begin to imagine what the conspiracy theorists are going to do with this, though we have no doubt Laura Loomer is hard at work. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans (along with certain former Democratic senators from California) certainly are doing their part to argue for term limits these days. (Z & A)