Jul.13

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Cook Moves Four Gubernatorial Races toward the Democrats and One Away

Although most of the political world is looking at the House and Senate, there are also 35 races for governor in November. Governors are actually pretty important now that Congress is deadlocked all the time and can't do anything, even though Republicans hold the trifecta. The Cook Political Report is tracking and rating all the gubernatorial races as well as the congressional ones. It has now changed the rating on five races for governor. Here are the changes (asterisks denote incumbents running for reelection):

It matters a great deal whether there are more Democratic senators than Republican senators but it doesn't matter whether there are more Democratic governors or Republican governors. At the moment, Republicans have the lead 26-24, but that could change in January, as several states with Republican governors could flip, notably Iowa and Ohio.

In Arizona, fire-breathing Trumpist election denier Andy Biggs is expected to wipe out Rep. David Schweikert in the primary a week from tomorrow. Today's Arizona is not Barry Goldwater's or even John McCain's Arizona. Hobbs is on the air now with $6.3 million in ads. On top of that, she is very popular, with 53% to 34% approval vs. disapproval.

In Maine, Hannah Pingree, the daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) is now the Democratic nominee. The Pingree name is well known in Maine, even if some people may not be able to tell mother from daughter (hint: the daughter is younger). Republican nominee Bobby Charles is another fire-breathing Trumpist, which is not going to be popular in Maine. There is also an independent candidate running, state Sen. Rick Bennett, a former Republican. Maine has a long history of independent candidates mucking up elections. This race does not use ranked-choice voting. It is first-past-the-post with no runoff. Polls show Pingree with a 13-point lead.

In New Mexico, Deb Haaland has raised $12.8 million to Greg Hull's $600,000. National Republicans aren't helping Hull at all. They have effectively abandoned him. That's never a good sign. If Haaland wins, she will be the first Native American woman governor of a U.S. State. She is a member of the Pueblo of Laguna tribe. Her ancestors have lived on the land that is now New Mexico for more than 800 years. She is definitely not a carpetbagger. Her opponent was born in Oklahoma, but has lived in New Mexico for many years.

In Ohio, we will find out whether the governorship is for sale. Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has already spent $13 million on positive ads and $7 million on negative ads attacking Democrat Amy Acton. The Republican Governors Association is planning to spend an additional $20 million. Nevertheless, Ramaswamy has a likability problem, even among Republicans. Ohio is pretty red, but a recent poll has it 47% to 47% because independents are going for Acton by 28 points. Ramaswamy will outspend Acton by a huge amount, but if people think the candidate is obnoxious, that doesn't help so much.

In Oregon, Gov. Tina Kotek (D) and state Sen. Christine Drazan (R) are at it again, just as in 2022, but this time without a self-funding independent in the race. Last time, Kotek won by 3.4 points. Kotek's approval rating is above water, but not by much, 48% to 42%. Kotek will tie Drazan to the unpopular Trump and harp on Drazan's opposition to abortion. Internal polling from Drazan's campaign, which may or may not be real, has Drazan up 48%-44%. Still, Kotek is the clear favorite.

Governors are important in presidential years because they have knowledge of the state and what is important with the voters, and can help the candidate of their party with messaging, logistics and more. They are less important in midterm years, although when a Senate seat is up as well, gubernatorial and senatorial candidates are somewhat joined at the hip, and will tend to rise and fall in unison with each other. (V)