Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, Donald Trump announced that he will give yet another primetime address to the nation, this one scheduled for 9:00 ET Thursday.
There are some useful subjects that he might address. The renewal of the war in Iran leaps to mind, and so do the ICE killings. The problem is that, to be blunt, we already know the basic script here. Every time Trump speaks to the nation, including his State of the Union addresses, it's 48% braggadocio, 48% score-settling, and maybe 4% useful stuff. There's no reason to expect anything different at this point, which is why most news outlets are debating whether to even broadcast the address. If the news stations take a pass, then it might only be broadcast on Fox, Newsmax and OAN.
Relying on anonymous White House sources, reporters have confirmed that Iran will indeed be one topic of conversation during the speech. But go ahead and read our first item above. Is there any chance he tells us anything new? It's going to be however many minutes of di**-waving and bluster, as Trump desperately tries to peddle his version of reality, namely that he's in the driver's seat in Iran, and that he's calling the shots over there. MAGA will believe it, but they already believe it. We don't think a single non-MAGA American will be persuaded.
Further, MS NOW is reporting that much of the speech, including the Iran part, will exist primarily to justify the notion that a primetime, national address was needed. The REAL reason Trump is giving the speech, at least according to that outlet, is because he believes he has "new information" about election fraud in Georgia, and he plans to share that information with the American people, and to declare that both of the current Georgia senators are illegitimate. As a reminder, Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock (both D-GA) were indeed elected in the same election in 2020. But it took a runoff in both cases, and then on top of that, Warnock was reelected in 2022, and that one also went to a runoff. So, we're actually talking about six separate elections here (regular and runoff for Ossoff; special, regular and two runoffs for Warnock), not one. That would require an awful lot of fraud.
We will watch Trump's speech, even though we'd rather have a root canal without anesthesia, because that is what we do. And until we see it, we obviously can't be sure how it will come off. However, our preliminary guess is pretty similar to our guess about the Iran material, namely that MAGA will eat it up, and nobody else will buy it. Meanwhile, it will surely make Trump feel better to re-litigate this yet again, but we would guess that for non-MAGA Republicans and independents, it will serve to reiterate that the cheese is slipping off the cracker, and that Trump's only real concern is Donald Trump. Meanwhile, right in the middle of an election season, the people who run Georgia—all of them Republicans—will get to field a bunch of questions from reporters, in which they can either admit to being corrupt/incompetent, or they can call the president delusional/a liar. That just can't be good for the Georgia GOP's prospects in November.
At the moment, Ossoff's polling lead averages about six points, while the gubernatorial race between businessman Rick Jackson (R) and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is a dead heat. It is not probable that Ossoff's opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R), can be saved by Trumpy conspiratorial thinking, or by anything else Trump does. On the other hand, anything that hurts Jackson a little, or helps Bottoms a little, could be decisive. And our preliminary guess is that calling the state's Black Senator illegitimate might just aggravate some Black voters, and cause them to walk over hot coals to get to the polls, if that is what they have to do. (Z)