Dem
47
GOP
53
Speaking of Susan Collins, she's got some reasons to be "concerned" these days when it comes to continuing her political career beyond January 3, 2027.
To start with, the exit of Graham Platner (and he did formally drop out on Monday) has reset the themes of the race. It had been shaping up to be a contest centered on Totenkopfs and sexual misconduct. Now, it's shifting toward issues that work to Collins' detriment, rather than her advantage. Specifically, as the various wannabe Democratic U.S. Senators search for delegates, they have begun hammering Collins on abortion. Presumably, most Mainers know that Collins' vote was key to confirming Brett Kavanaugh, and that Kavanaugh's vote was key to overturning Roe v. Wade. And by the end of this Senate campaign, every Mainer is going to know it. They are also going to know that Collins said that Kavanaugh cross-his-heart, hope-to-die promised that he would NOT overturn Roe, which makes her look either dishonest or stupid.
And abortion isn't the only issue that Democratic candidates are using against Collins, at least not as of Monday. They are also hitting her hard on her votes to fund ICE, in particular the $70 billion in funding passed without Democratic votes. Every Democrat in the running (and there are eight candidates so far) has said that at least some of Joan Sebastian Guerrero's blood is on the Senator's hands. Collins has responded by... co-signing a letter that was also signed by the rest of Maine's congressional delegation, and that contains such remarks as, "The facts surrounding this tragedy remain a matter of significant local concern and necessitate thorough, objective accounting." Was that written by AI? Whoever or whatever wrote it, it certainly doesn't convey much depth of feeling on the part of Collins or her colleagues.
Another issue that is rounding into form is the ongoing quagmire in Iran. Collins thrice voted no on resolutions to curb Trump's war, before changing course and twice voting yes. As per usual, and Collins' Democratic opponents are making certain to point this out, her votes against Trump are rarely decisive.
More broadly, Maine is a state where Trump is currently 14 points underwater (42% to 56%) according to Morning Consult, 21 points underwater (38% to 59%) according to The Portland Press Herald/NYT/Siena, and 23 points underwater (36% to 59%) according to Civiqs. Collins' eventual opponent is sure to point out that during Trump v1.0, she voted with the President 90% of the time. And during Trump v2.0, with an insurrection, several invasions of foreign nations, the cruelty of ICE and a mountain of grift under his belt, Collins has voted with him... 94.6% of the time. She must like what she's seeing. At least, that's the observation the Democratic nominee is going to make. Collins actually does vote against Trump more than any Republican senator not named Murkowski or Paul, but that's probably not enough for her to argue she's not in lockstep with the President, especially since her "I voted against the Donald" votes are so often, and so famously, strategically timed.
Speaking of the Democratic nominee, the Maine Democratic Party is partnering with News Center Maine to stage a candidates' debate tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. ET (whether there will be more debates is unclear at this point). The state party does not want to appear to be putting its thumb on the scale for anyone, and so every person who has qualified for the mini-primary is invited to attend. Here's the list of invitees:
Candidates whose names are in bold have accepted the debate invitation. The deadline to declare an intent to run is today, so if anyone else is going to get in, time is short for them to do so.
Not only is the state Democratic Party bending over backwards to keep thumbs off the scale, so too is the national Democratic Party. In particular, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) knows full well that the eventual nominee can't even have the faintest whiff of being "his" candidate, at risk of alienating the populist Platner voters the blue team is trying to get back inside the tent. So, Schumer will say nothing and do nothing until a nominee is chosen, and THEN will back that person with all the money and logistical support he can muster.
There has been surprisingly little polling of the race thus far. It is possible that polling just takes time, particularly when you're dealing with a fairly small state, population-wise. It's also possible that the folks who pay for polls are holding off until the field is set and/or the debate is held. The only poll we've seen is an internal poll from the Shah campaign. It says that Shah (47% to 46%), Bellows (47% to 47%) and Jackson (47% to 48%) would all be in a statistical dead heat with Collins. If that's true, and it could very well be, that's pretty good news for the Democrats, as lesser-known candidates usually have more potential to grow their support than universally-known candidates like Collins.
One other data point, for what it is worth. Here's the graph of betting odds on the prediction site Kalshi:
Betting odds are not the most reliable indicator, as much as those of us who are nervous about the efficacy of polls wish otherwise. However, it's certainly fair to conclude that the allegations against Graham Platner wrecked his campaign, and that his departure has breathed new life into the Democrats' hopes. Whether the blue team is really 2-to-1 to win right now is the questionable part.
The debate is set for 7:00 ET Thursday, and is scheduled to last 90 minutes. So, if you were concerned you might miss Donald Trump's speech, don't worry, you'll be able to catch both (he's speaking at 9:00). We assume the debate will stream on the website of News Center Maine and also on their YouTube Channel. (Z)