Dem
47
GOP
53
Up to three budget reconciliation bills are allowed per year and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is revving up the lawmaking machinery to try pass #3. Some of his members don't want another one but Donald Trump does, and since the Constitution requires Congress to do whatever the president orders it to do, Johnson has to (at least try to) comply.
Trump wants another $67 billion for defense and $20 billion as welfare for farmers hurt by his tariffs, war in Iran, and other policies. The total, including some miscellaneous other items, is $95 billion. This is far below the $350 billion Trump wanted for the defense alone. Some Republicans want spending cuts to match, but Johnson seems to be in no mood for the fights that would bring. Better to put the tab on the national credit card.
Trump also wants the bill to contain the SAVE America Act, which would make voting more difficult for many people. That alone guarantees that no Democrat will vote for it. With a 219-212 margin, Republicans can afford only three defections. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), declared the bill DOA. Other hardliners might also oppose it, although typically it is all bark and no bite with most of them. When Trump calls, they cower under their desks and say "Yes, sir." However, with the filing deadlines past in most states, Trump's go-to weapon, supporting a primary opponent, is running out of steam.
Another problem is that the SAVE America Act is not budget-related and will not survive a Byrd bath in the Senate. If Republicans made the bill just about defense, it would probably pass muster, but with all the other stuff, not so much. Trump wants to solve all these problems by abolishing the filibuster, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) knows what the Democrats would do if they get the trifecta in 2028 and there is no filibuster, so he has refused to abolish it.
Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) is planning to do a first markup of the bill this morning. Once the budget has passed, that unlocks the reconciliation process, which would allow the bill to pass with just 51 votes in the Senate. (V)