Dem
47
GOP
53
A new Detroit News/Glengariff poll in the very important Michigan Democatic Senate primary has a surprising result. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) leads former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed 48% to 41%. This is the first poll since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. The race is significant because progressives felt they were on a roll after winning three primaries in deep blue House districts in New York City and two in Colorado. This is a test of a progressive (El-Sayed) vs. a pretty standard liberal (Stevens) in a large swing state. A progressive win here would be a real earthquake. Previous polls have had El-Sayed ahead, but a recent one-on-one debate may have changed that. One bad omen for El-Sayed is that the undecided voters are largely traditional Democrats.
The candidates' supporters have different priorities. El-Sayed voters prioritized "representing my values" and "getting results for Michigan." Stevens' voters prioritized opposing Donald Trump and winning the general election in November. The pollster said that El-Sayed wants to make the race about the direction of the Democratic Party. Stevens wants to make it about the direction of America.
The poll shows that Stevens is strongest with Black voters, noncollege voters, older voters and Metro Detroit voters. El-Sayed is strongest with white voters, college-educated voters, younger voters and Democratic Socialists. Stevens has a modest lead (S+9) on people who have already turned in their absentee ballots and a larger lead among those still holding their absentee ballots (S+27). El-Sayed leads with those planning to vote on Primary Day on August 4 (E+18). (V)