Dem
47
GOP
53
There's also pretty big Senate news out of Maine over the weekend.
This past weekend was the one set aside for the 16 county-level meetings to choose delegates to the impromptu Senate "convention" that will be held next weekend. There were 500 delegates at stake, to go with the 100 members of the state committee. Those 600 will choose the nominee. And although this was not entirely clear last week, the county-level meetings were apparently done caucus-style, such that each county was sending slates of delegates. In other words, Androscoggin County Democrats were deciding whether to award all their delegates to former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, or to Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, or to Dr. Nirav Shah, or to former congressional aide Jordan Wood. They were NOT going to be able to give some number of delegates to each candidate.
This process resulted in a very clear winner; Jackson claimed 456 of the 500 available delegates. That means that, barring a wave of defections, the votes of the 100 state-level Democrats were irrelevant. And so, Bellows promptly dropped out, and then Shah dropped out, and then Wood dropped out. With all the serious challengers gone, CNN canceled the debate it had planned for later this week, a debate that would have been Jackson's only real shot to blow it (if he said something overtly racist, or something like that). So, barring some sort of shocking development, Jackson is the candidate. Of course, there's already been more than one of those in this race, so you never know.
Now that Jackson is the candidate-elect, as it were, it's time for him to get the microscope treatment. Thus far, the biggest and only skeleton that seems to have emerged from his closet is that Jackson has lost his temper in the past, and he once threw a water bottle in a meeting after becoming angry with one of his female colleagues in the state Senate. She says she felt intimidated, because she felt that he was aiming for her. Others who were in the room say the bottle landed nowhere near her, and that there was no intent to strike her. Everyone agrees that Jackson apologized to the colleague at the very next meeting.
So, is this enough to potentially derail Jackson's candidacy? We doubt it. In part, because he's going to be compared to Graham Platner, who clearly had far more serious black marks on his record. In part, because it's "he said, she said," and it's hard to know where the truth lies. And in part, because the incident is well known enough to Maine voters that it even has a name (the not-very-original "water bottle incident"), meaning that knowledge of this was baked in when the delegates were chosen this weekend. Clearly, the activist class, at least, does not feel it's a dealbreaker.
Also, it wouldn't be an election without at least a few "Democrats in disarray" stories. Politico appears to have won this particular derby; that outlet got a story posted early Monday morning about how some Democrats are very nervous, because Jackson is not a "slick" candidate, the way Platner was.
Based on our limited knowledge of Jackson, we would say this is true. In our debate writeup, we noted that he was prone to mumbling and to word salads. On the other hand, Bellows was even worse on that front, Shah has serious baggage leftover from the various stops in his career in appointed office, and Wood is a bit of a dilettante without much in the way of relevant experience. Every candidate for office has their weaknesses, and things are particularly tough on that front in "picking up the pieces" situations, like the ones in Maine and South Carolina right now.
We don't know how many nervous Democrats there really are but, from where we sit, we think that the Democratic Party should be thrilled with the result. Jackson has a long and legitimate résumé, full of relevant experience. He does not appear to have much baggage. And you can be a pretty effective senator without being much of a public speaker (see Schumer, Chuck). Meanwhile, the process developed by the Maine Democratic Party allowed all sides to feel heard, while nonetheless quickly identifying a clear winner with a minimum of friction. All of this is about the best possible outcome the Party could hope for after the Platner implosion.
There has been a (very) little polling of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) vs. Jackson. Z to A Research had Collins up by 1 point, 48% to 47%. PPP and Wedgewood Polls both had Jackson up by 5; 49%-44% and 48%-43% respectively. So, it should be a close race, and one that the blue team once again has a real shot at winning. (Z)