Jul.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Democrats Get Their Man in Arizona

Arizonans headed to the polls yesterday; here are the notable results:

• Governor: This is the race we refer to in the headline. Trump endorsees won up and down the ticket, and that includes Rep. Andy Biggs (R), who took a staggering 72.6% of the vote in his primary, as compared to 15% for Rep. David Schweikert (R).
  
  Recent history—particularly the failed campaigns of wannabe governor/senator Kari Lake—has shown that there is a cadre of MAGA Arizonans large enough to nominate MAGA candidates. However, that cadre is not large enough to win elections, and the MAGA candidates tend to cause independent voters and normie Republicans (a.k.a. "McCain Republicans" in Arizona) to stay home on Election Day, or to vote third-party/Democratic. In 2022, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) defeated Lake by about half a percent. This time around, Hobbs has the benefit of incumbency, and she'll be running in a tough-for-Republicans year as opposed to a tough-for-Democrats year like 2022 was. Looks to us like she's in great shape for a second term. Preliminary polling gives her an average lead of around 6 points over Biggs, roughly 45% to 39%.
  
  
• Secretary of State: We do not normally take much notice of state-level offices below governor. In this case, however, it's worth making an exception. The Republican candidate in this race will be state Rep. Alexander Kolodin, who defeated former Arizona GOP Chair Gina Swoboda, 58.9% to 41.1%. Kolodin is an outspoken election denier who was active in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential results in the state. Even a lot of Republicans don't like this stuff. So, we expect the effects of the Kolodin nomination will be: (1) to set incumbent SoS Adrian Fontes (D) on the glide path to reelection; (2) to remind Arizonans that MAGA is crazypants and anti-democratic, and so to drag down the entire GOP ticket. If Kolodin does win, however, and does gain responsibility to oversee Arizona elections, then heaven help us all.
  
  
• AZ-01: Schweikert left behind this R+1 district to mount his ultimately quixotic campaign for governor. The Republican who will try to succeed him is former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who easily won his three-way primary with 49.6% of the vote. He's a mega-MAGA Trumper, and is going to lean into culture wars as he campaigns for the seat. For what it's worth, punters tend to be pretty sharp, but kickers tend to be meatheads.
  
  The Democratic primary hasn't been called yet, but former state Rep. Amish Shah leads by 7 points (40.5% to 33.5%) with 83.6% reporting, so it's probably going to be him. Truth be told, we can't figure out why the call hasn't been made yet, since journalist Marlene Galán-Woods would need to take 70% of the remaining vote to pull ahead, which seems unlikely. Shah is a physician who also has an NFL connection, as he used to work for the New York Jets (this assumes you count the Jets as an NFL team). He is progressive-leaning, probably a shade more than Galán-Woods, but is not fanatical about it. His issues page lists "STOPPING ANIMAL CRUELTY" among his key issues; that might be the first time we've seen that from a candidate.
  
  
• AZ-02: This is an R+7 district, which means it's theoretically in reach if there's an absolute blue tsunami. That said, it's not often that an incumbent loses in a district this partisan, and Rep. Eli Crane (R), who is one of the many, many Navy-SEALs-turned-Republican-politicians, is running for reelection. Crane was unopposed yesterday, and so was his likely victim Jonathan Nez. Nez is the former president of the Navajo Nation, is somewhat lefty, and was defeated by Crane by 9 points for this same seat back in 2024.
  
  
• AZ-04: This district is D+4, and Rep. Greg Stanton (D) won the right to run for reelection yesterday, 65% to 35%. This was yet another progressive-against-establishment race, and in this one, the establishment won handily. They like Democratic Socialists in New York City, and in parts of Colorado, but maybe not so much in Arizona. Physician Zuhdi Jasser is the Republican nominee; he was unopposed yesterday. Jasser is running as a McCain Republican, and is going to hope that MAGA voters do not notice that he's a birthright citizen. It will not be easy for him to defeat an incumbent in a pretty blue district in what figures to be a pretty blue year.
  
  
• AZ-05: Usually, R+10 is too far away from swing territory to be worth mentioning. We make an exception in this case, however, because the Republican nominee in this district—the one Biggs left behind to run for governor—will be former sheriff Mark Lamb, who took 58.4% of the vote. He has faced accusations of sexting with women who are not his wife, and of using his power as sheriff to try to keep the messages from seeing the light of day. His opponent will be Elizabeth Lee, who won her primary with 65.2% of the vote. She's running a moderately lefty campaign, including a gun violence prevention plank. That would be deadly in, say, Texas, but maybe it plays better in a district not too far away from the one once represented by gun-violence victim Gabby Giffords.
  
  We don't imagine Lee will win, unless a lot more dirt about Lamb comes out. However, we do imagine Lamb will get more than a few mentions this cycle, as an example of Republicans' willingness to look the other way when it comes to penis crimes.
  
  
• AZ-06: This EVEN district is going to be a focal point for both parties. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R), who is about as moderate as a Republican member of Congress can get away with these days, but who still votes with Donald Trump most of the time, will try to hold on for a third term. He was unopposed yesterday, as was his opponent, JoAnna Mendoza, a single mom and former Marine Corps drill sergeant. Her slogan is "Battle Tested," which is pretty good. She's running the exact kind of moderate Democratic campaign, focused on kitchen-table issues, that you usually see in districts like this one.
  
  
• AZ-08: If we're going to mention an R+7 district, then we also have to mention this R+8 district. Rep. Abraham Hamadeh (R) was unopposed, and will be running for a second term. The Democrat who will face a very uphill battle as she tries to knock him off is Bernadette Greene-Placentia, a former truck driver who is running on a populist platform, but also one that is pro-seniors and pro-veterans. As you might have heard, Arizona has a lot of both of those.

And that's the ballgame. Next week, there are a couple of small-ish elections; the special election to fill the seat of the deceased Rep. David Scott (D-GA) and the runoff between Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) and Toby Doeden (R) for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in South Dakota. (Z)