Dem
47
GOP
53
A new Public First poll shows that only 37% of MAGA/Trump voters now believe the war in Iran should continue, even if increases costs in America. And 37% believe it should continue, but only if it does not increase costs in America. Additionally, 19% believe the war should end now, no matter what. Two months ago, half of MAGA voters wanted the war to continue, regardless of the costs. Here is a graphic of the data:
It is clear from the data that MAGA voters are feeling the economic fallout from the war. Most of them don't care so much the geopolitical aspects, the Strait of Hormuz, the dead American soldiers, the $40 billion cost, or the depletion of U.S. munitions, but boy, oh boy, do they ever care about paying an additional $1 for a gallon of gas.
The national average is now $4.06/Gal. What are people blaming? The war in Iran is in first place, with Trump's tariffs in second place. Here are the top five, broken down by partisanship:
Majorities of all groups blame the war. It is inescapable. A quarter of MAGA voters also blame Trump's tariffs. In any event, the blame rests squarely on him. This certainly doesn't mean these people are now going to vote for some random Democrat for the House, but they could well stay home in November of out disgust. And, of course, there are two Senate races set up so that people can vote for a viable non-Republican without voting for a Democrat (Montana and Nebraska).
What is also noteworthy is that among Trump 2024 voters, 20% admit that gas prices have gone up more under Trump than they would have under Kamala Harris. But an astounding number, 34%, think that gas prices would have gone up more under Harris. Do they think she would have started a war with Iran and botched it even worse than Trump? More likely, the old reflex: "Democrats bad" is kicking in, without any basis.
Is Trump thus trying to end the war as fast as possible to get the price of gas down? Actually, no. It could be that he wants to keep it going to extract maximal personal grift from it, or he is embarrassed that he tore up the agreement Barack Obama carefully negotiated with Iran (in which the Strait of Hormuz was open and free) and replaced it with the far worse situation that Trump created. The President's advisers now all realize that Iran is in the driver's seat and the only way to dislodge it would be a ground invasion, which would cost hundreds of American lives and dozens of House seats. Trump doesn't give a hoot about dead soldiers but he does care (somewhat) about losing control of the House (and the subsequent impeachments).
A lot of the problem is that Americans do not support the war because they do not understand what the purpose is. Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative magazine, said:
This shows that as unpopular as the first round of war was from February to early summer, this second round is even more ridiculous. The American people quite simply do not get it, do not understand why we are in this war, and, yes, President Trump is king of the Republican Party.
The American people aren't the only ones who don't get it. Neither does Trump. On Tuesday, he (again) said: "They [The midterms] won't have any impact on me. I'm just here to do the right thing. I don't view it as, gee, we're having an election in a period of time." If Trump is really extending the war to keep the grift going, that might be technically true, however ironic that might seem. (V)