Dem
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GOP
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On Saturday, an ad hoc state Democratic convention will select a Senate candidate to replace the disgraced What's-his-name. The odds-on favorite is former president of the Maine state Senate, Troy Jackson. The Cook Political Report took a look at his strengths and weaknesses compared to oh—now we remember, wasn't it Lindsey Graham Platner, or something?
On policy, there is not a lot of daylight between the two. They support largely the same things. For voters who latched onto Platner simply on account of policy, Jackson won't disappoint them. In another way, Jackson is much better than Platner, who claimed to be "working class." This was not exactly true. His father was a prominent business attorney and his mother owned an upscale restaurant that bought most of the oysters Platner raised. Platner went to the exceedingly elite Hotchkiss prep school in Connecticut (current cost: $81,000/year)—until he was expelled for behavioral problems. Then he went to a public high school in Bangor. He was never poor, or even close, as a kid. Jackson's father was a fifth-generation logger and his mother was a public school teacher. His mother was 16 when he was born and the family was unstable. They didn't make enough to live in, so, unlike Platner, Jackson grew up in poverty. His parents eventually divorced. When Jackson was in 7th grade, his dad and the other loggers went on strike. he understood from a young age what working class really means. He himself became a logger and later a union leader. That is a lot more authentically blue collar than raising oysters for your mom's fancy restaurant.
Jackson was born in Fort Kent, ME, but grew up in Allagash, ME, (pop. 237) about 10 miles from the Canadian border as the Canada goose flies. Susan Collins is from Caribou, ME, also in northern Maine, where her parents owned a sixth-generation lumber business. Both of her parents were town mayors. People from northern Maine, say, ME-02, don't regard people from the southern coast (ME-01) as true Mainers. Platner is from Sullivan, ME, close to the resort town of Bar Harbor, next to Acadia National Park. To people in ME-02, Jackson is a true Mainer and Platner is not—nor was Collins' 2020 opponent, Sara Gideon. So Jackson negates one of Collins' advantages: being seen as a true Mainer (and better yet, one who knows rural poverty).
Jackson has been in Maine politics for 25 years, initially as a Republican. He is known for his hot temper, but he has already been vetted to some extent and there is probably not much left to discover. Of course, the entire Republican oppo team is about to go over the state with a fine-tooth comb looking for dirt. But maybe there isn't any. At least not personal dirt. But 25 years in the state legislature means he has taken a lot of votes that can be mined and distorted. For example, he used to oppose abortion access, but that was years ago. He can also make the case that the Senate is not an entry-level job and having been president of a state Senate definitely qualifies him for the position.
Jackson also has some disadvantages compared to Platner. First, although Platner looked and sounded like he came from a working-class background, he didn't. Jackson did, but appearances are what matters, not reality. And Platner has a more compelling "look." Second, Jackson is a fair bit older than Platner (58 vs. 41). Third, Platner is a fiery, gifted public speaker. Jackson is not a terribly exciting speaker. One Maine Republican put it this way: Jackson has the credentials, but not the magic.
Jackson's main task will be addressing women voters who like the idea of a female senator but don't like some of Collins' votes. He will hammer her on those. When Collins hits him on his anti-abortion past, he will hit right back on her vote for Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Jackson will also have to raise money quickly, but since the race is already nationalized, once he is the official nominee, money will be flowing in from as far away as Hawaii. And in reality, he won't have to campaign in ME-01. It is very blue (D+11). He can focus entirely on northern Maine, where he is from and which doesn't have any expensive media markets. The biggest city in the district is Lewiston (Pop. 37,000). (V)