Dem
47
GOP
53
It is a crazy aspect of U.S. politics that if a presidential candidate performs poorly in two extremely unrepresentative states—Iowa and New Hampshire—the media say you can stick a fork in them because they are all done. The only candidate who lost both (since they moved to the front of the line) and was still elected president was Bill Clinton, but he was a truly gifted candidate. The bottom line here is that the order of the primaries is (unfortunately) very important. The first two don't always pick the winner but they often weed out candidates who might have won had other states had gone first.
This week, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee is going to propose the 2028 primary schedule. It will then go to a vote of the full DNC. It is a tradition for four small states, in different regions of the country, to go first. Having a truly representative state, like California, go first, would mean candidates who couldn't raise $50 million right off the bat would have no chance. In a smaller state, a convincing candidate with no money but a good story to tell can win (See: Carter, Jimmy).
Two states that are trying hard to be #1 are South Carolina and Nevada. The battle is getting acrimonious. South Carolina is saying: "60% of the Democrats here are Black and Black voters are the Democrats' most loyal constituency, so we should go first." Nevada is saying: "Latinos are the fastest-growing ethnic group in the country and Nevada has many Latinos, so a candidate Latinos like is essential." Also playing a role is that Nevada is a swing state that the right candidate could actually win. No Democrat is going to win South Carolina, so pleasing its voters doesn't count for much once the primary is over. Another state that would be willing to go first is Virginia. Although it is a blue state, it has a large Black population and borders on a swing state (North Carolina) the Democrats keep lusting after. Actually, North Carolina might be an even better choice since it has a large Black population and would be a real prize in the general election. But no one seems to be talking about it.
Xavier Becerra, soon to be the first Latino governor of California, and a Democratic power player, is lobbying hard for Nevada. A current governor who is a Latina and is lobbying for a Latino-heavy state is Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM). She prefers her own state, but would be happy with Nevada as well.
One complication is that New Hampshire has a state law requiring it to have the first primary. It is not going to change its law. The former New Hampshire secretary of state, Bill Gardner, once famously said he would hold the primary on Halloween of the year before the election if he had to in order to go first. What the Democrats could do is impose a severe penalty on candidates who filed to run in New Hampshire—for example, not allowing them on stage during debates. By next week, we should know how this is going to play out. (V)