Dem
47
GOP
53
In an Oval Office meeting in 2025, Donald Trump famously told Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelenskyy "You have no cards." And yet, somehow, Zelenskyy played his hand well. Russia invaded Ukraine 4½ years ago and is not making any progress beyond what it won in the first week. Meanwhile, Ukraine has become the world's leading producer of drones and anti-drones. Those trump the ace of spades in wars these days. Given how effective Iran has been shutting down the Strait of Hormuz with cheap drones, all of a sudden, Zelenskyy has some pretty good cards.
Trump had a meeting with Zelenskyy on Tuesday to discuss... cards. In particular, Zelenskyy is offering Ukraine's anti-drone technology, which has been especially effective against the Shahed drones that Iran has been producing in large numbers. These drones have been the reason Iran has been able to keep the Strait shut down. If Ukraine can provide a way to neutralize the Shaheds, shipping could open, which would send oil and gas prices down. That would help the Republicans in the midterms.
Not surprisingly, all of a sudden, Trump is very interested in this guy with no cards. However, now that his "no cards" are very important to Trump, Zelenskyy realizes that he also has some leverage. In particular, he wants the U.S. to supply Ukraine with plenty of Patriot missiles. They are defensive weapons and very effective at shooting down enemy aircraft and incoming missiles. They could be used to protect Kyiv and other cities against Russian fire.
Two weeks ago, Trump gave Ukraine a license to produce its own Patriots, but it will take time to build a factory to produce them, and that factory needs to be protected against Russian missiles. Consequently, Zelenskyy wants more Patriots from Trump, and right now.
This request, while not against any U.S. interests, has geopolitical implications that would be trying for even a president well-steeped in foreign policy and military affairs, which Trump is definitely not. The problem is that everybody wants Patriots. They are very effective and have been proven to work under actual war conditions over and over. As Iran steps up attacks on U.S. allies in the Gulf region, the U.A.E., Qatar, and other countries also want Patriots. So does Israel. So does Taiwan. So do other U.S. "allies." They are not cheap. There are several variants of the Patriot, but they cost in the ballpark of $4-7 million each.
The trouble is the U.S. stockpile is running low and you can't just log into Amazon.com and order 500 of them and have them delivered today by drone. Raytheon (RTX) and Lockheed Martin make them, but Patriots are complicated systems dependent on advanced radar systems. Together the two companies can produce only about 500 units per year. Given new contracts, the companies could build more factories, but that takes time. Furthermore, it takes 2 years to produce each individual missile, so it would probably take 3 years before the production rate could be ramped up. Trump could try to delay the midterms until 2029, but there would likely be some blowback if he tried.
Zelenskyy also went to Capitol Hill Tuesday to meet with a group of senators. He also wants something from them. He wants them to honor the legacy of the late Lindsey Graham, a Ukraine hawk. Specifically, he wants Congress to pass a bill putting heavy sanctions on Russia and also on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia. Among other things, it directs the president to levy tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. There is nothing Trump likes better than levying tariffs, so he will surely do it with enthusiasm. This bill was one of the departed senator's pet projects. It had been stalled in the Senate, but Graham's death breathed new life into it. The Senate even renamed the bill for Graham. Officially it is the "Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026."
After talking to the senators for a while, Zelenskyy was seated in the first row to watch the Senate vote on moving the bill forward. The procedural vote was 86-12 for advancing the bill. Eleven Democrats and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) voted against it. With such a large bipartisan support, the bill is almost certain to pass the full Senate shortly. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said he is open to pushing it through the House, but he didn't commit to supporting it yet. However, he did say: "Vladimir Putin has shown an unwillingness to be reasonable and to talk seriously about brokering a peace, and I think we have to send them a message, that's my view." If the bill stops Russia from selling its oil and gas, that could cripple its ability to fund the war in Ukraine. China is a wild card here. It might decide to buy up all the excess oil and gas Russia can't sell elsewhere and see if Trump is a paper tiger.
Trump also met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday. Back in February, Netanyahu told Trump that conquering Iran would be child's play and over in a week. It didn't quite work out like that and it is a sore point with Trump. Nevertheless, both sides reported that the meeting went smoothly. Most likely, Trump is thinking that Netanyahu got him into this mess and maybe he can get him out of it. Trump is also waging some diplomacy on his own. He recently agreed to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, the first step toward developing nuclear weapons—but on the condition that Saudi Arabia recognize Israel. That is something that both Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman want, but the war in Iran complicates matters for MbS. The two have something important in common: Neither one wants Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Also, neither one gives a hoot about the Palestinians. (V)