Dem
47
GOP
53
When Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) picked Darline Graham Nordone (née Darlene Lettie Graham) to fill out the term of the late Lindsey Graham until January, she was seen by everyone as a placeholder for a few months. Maybe she would get to vote on the Senate floor a few times, so any legislation wouldn't fail due to a lack of Republicans available. After all, there are 53 Republican senators and with Graham dead and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a hospital, that is cutting it close, especially since Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is in the fight of her life and might have to vote with the Democrats on some votes, while the votes of Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Rand Paul (R-KY) are never certain.
Then out of the blue, Donald Trump told Darline to change her name to Darline Graham and run for a full term with his full endorsement. She agreed, but this will be a real test of Trump's endorsement power. So far, little is known about Graham and what she believes. Being in the Senate for a full 6 years is quite different from being in the Senate for 6 months, much of which time the Senate won't even be in session.
Trump's endorsement didn't clear the field, as it sometimes does. Reps. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and Russell Fry (R-SC), former Appalachian Trail hiker Mark Sanford, businessman Mark Lynch, and a bunch of random unknown people are in. While Darline has a well-known name, she has little else to offer the voters except Trump's endorsement. The big question is whether that will be enough. In contrast, Norman and Fry have established bases and are known in their respective districts. Sanford is a former governor, although his hiking style alienated some traditional voters who prefer hiking the Trail on foot, rather than by plane.
The campaigns were delayed until after the late senator's funeral, which was Tuesday. Now they will have to go from 0 to 100 very fast, since the primary is Aug. 11, with a runoff Aug. 25.
If the race goes to runoff between Graham and one of the congressmen, which seems likely, Trump might endorse both of them to increase his batting average. Trump pulled this stunt earlier in South Carolina. In the race for governor, his endorsee, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, didn't come in first so in the runoff, he endorsed both candidates. He seems to care more about his batting average than who actually wins. And he raises his batting average essentially by cheating, just as he does in golf (although there he tries to lower his average, not raise it). If Trump endorsed both Graham and either Fry or Norman in the runoff, then all Graham would have going for her is the memory of her brother—and not all Republicans liked him. Could Graham then win against an experienced politician without Trump's full endorsement?
As far as the general election goes, any Republican starts out as the favorite. However, Graham hasn't been vetted at all. There could be things that come out that could damage her in the eyes of the electorate. She has worked with and for people with disabilities much of her life, and might not be as conservative as her brother. The Democratic opponent is pediatrician Annie Andrews. (V)