Jul.30

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Michigan Senate Race Heats Up

One of the most contested primaries this cycle is the one between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) for the open Michigan Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). El-Sayed has the backing of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and a dozen progressive House Democrats. He also has the support of half a dozen unions, over a dozen activist organizations and several newspapers. On the other hand, Stevens has the endorsement of outgoing Sen. Peters, former Michigan senator Debbie Stabenow, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and many other state and national politicians. She also has the support of a dozen unions, EMILYs List, the Congressional Black Caucus and several newspapers. The Democrats are deeply divided on this one.

One important group that does not like El-Sayed is Black voters, who make up one-fifth of the Democratic electorate in Michigan. They tend to support moderates. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by 40 points among Black voters in Michigan. Some of the resentment against El-Sayed is due to his refusal in 2024 to endorse Joe Biden, which may have helped Donald Trump win a crucial swing state and the presidency. Also a factor is that Stevens, in her four terms in Congress, has been very active in the Black community. She also was on Barack Obama's task force that helped save the auto industry.

On Monday, El-Sayed and Stevens had their final debate. Here are six takeways from it.

• AIPAC: El-Sayed repeatedly hit Stevens for the help she has gotten from AIPAC. The group spent $30 million supporting her although it ran its own ads independent of her. As is typical of AIPAC ads, these didn't mention Israel but were more about kitchen table and other domestic issues. Stevens responded to the attacks saying the campaign is not about Israel, but about which candidate will do more to help Michiganders and Michigeese pay their bills.
  
  
• Celebrity: Stevens attacked El-Sayed as a self-centered celebrity. He has written three books and done 300 podcasts. She said she was not a celebrity. She does not spend all her time making millions and promoting herself. She said she spends all her time working for the people of her district and Michigan.
  
  
• Socialism: The moderator asked El-Sayed if he was a socialist. He said he was not, but that capitalism run amok, dominated by corporate monopolies and oligarchs, was a bigger threat than socialism. Some voters are going to interpret that as he is at least socialism-curious.
  
  
• ICE: El-Sayed said he would absolutely vote to abolish ICE. He also said the Democrats should do more to praise immigrants. His parents are immigrants from Egypt. Stevens talked about her efforts to redirect funding away from ICE.
  
  
• Black Voters: Nationally, whites are moderates and racial minorities are more progressive, but among Democrats, it is the reverse. White progressives are powering El-Sayed but Black voters, especially in and around Detroit, support the moderate Stevens. Stevens is counting on Black voters and she repeatedly sought to appeal to them. Some of the ads AIPAC ran featured Barack Obama endorsing Stevens the first time she ran for Congress. Stevens also said she has spent a lot of time helping minority-owned businesses.
  
  
• Ogre: Some of El-Sayed's online supporters have mocked Stevens' accent and speech patterns, even though she was born and raised in Michigan and lived there until she went to American University in D.C. Recently El-Sayed was caught on tape talking about Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA). El-Sayed said: "Ideally you put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message, and all of a sudden starts [sic] to sound a lot different." Stevens thanked El-Sayed for not calling her an ogre (like Fetterman).

Several polls that have just come out highlight the Democrats' problem. Two Democratic polling firms have produced polls that show El-Sayed ahead. Tavern Research has him ahead of Stevens by 10 points, 46% to 36%. A Data for Progress poll has him even further ahead, 54% to 41%. Now, here's the rub. There have also been recent general election polls rating the Democrat against former congressman Mike Rogers, the presumptive Republican nominee. A Glengariff poll has Rogers trouncing El-Sayed 48% to 41% while Stevens edges Rogers out 47% to 45% among likely voters.

For Democrats paying attention, do they want to support El-Sayed, even if that means losing the general election? The nightmare scenario for the Democrats here is that they hold all their other Senate seats, flip Maine and North Carolina, and two of Alaska, Texas and Iowa, giving them 50 seats while Rogers beats El-Sayed in Michigan, thus resulting in a 50-50 Senate and giving J.D. Vance something important to do besides making peace in Iran. If El-Sayed were to lose a winnable race and that cost the Democrats control of the Senate, the Party would tear itself to bits, not a great start for 2028. Will the Glengariff poll swing any El-Sayed voters? If there are any more primary polls, we may find out. The primary is Tuesday. (V)