Dem
47
GOP
53
A new Verasight poll of the Montana Senate race has Kurt Alme (R) at 41%, Seth Bodnar (I) at 27%, Alani Bankhead (D) at 22% and Kyle Austin (L) at 6%. The staff mathematician says he thinks that 27 + 22 > 41. We take his word for it. So if Bankhead were to drop out, then Bodnar (whose positions closely mirror those of a generic Democrat) could be competitive? Yes. The poll actually asked about an Alme - Bodnar race and it was 50-50.
So why isn't Bankhead taking one for the team and dropping out? Because Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen (R) just made a formal ruling that if Bankhead drops out, the Montana Democratic Party must name a replacement. That would defeat the purpose of her dropping out, since many low-information Democrats would just vote for the new Democrat on account of the (D).
Some Montanans have written the Montana Democratic Party an open letter arguing that the Democratic Party doesn't have to nominate someone, but it is a weak case.
There are two other possibilities, however. One is to nominate Bodnar as their candidate. State law prohibits fusion candidates (anyone on the ballot for two or more parties), as is common in New York. But technically, Bodnar would not be from two parties, so that might pass. Jacobsen is already on record saying that the exact words in the law require the Democratic Party to nominate a new candidate. Could she then turn around and say that even though the law does not mention running as an independent candidate and as a party candidate, she has interpreted "independent" to mean belonging to a party? Would the courts buy that? Of course, the Democratic label is not a plus in Montana, so Bodnar would have to think about whether he even wants the nomination.
Another way might be to go all in on rodent reproduction. Find some willing Democrat and pick him or her. Then make the platform consist of these three issues:
Actually spend some money (Montana is a cheap state) publicizing the issues. With a bit of luck, Montana Democrats will be repelled and vote for Bodnar. Some Montana Republicans may be attracted and vote for the "Democrat" instead of Alme. It would be a strange race, but it could work. A variant of this could be first to nominate Bodnar and if Jacobsen vetoes that, go to court with the hope the court doesn't make a decision before the August 19 deadline. If the court rejects Bodnar, then Plan C is to pick a candidate and run on the above platform. There is no way the SoS could ban that. Then when reporters say to the candidate: "You sound like a Republican," he or she could reply: "I believe in bipartisanship and Republican voters who also believe in bipartisanship should vote for me." When the reporters then ask: "But what about the Democratic voters?" the response could be: "I have them locked down. They are stuck with me. They have no choice." Turn the arrogance up to 110. It would be an interesting experiment to see what a candidate can do to make sure his or her base hates him and walks away.
Yet another thing the Democrats could do, independent of what they do about their own nominee, is advertise for the Libertarian, Kyle Austin, who is on the ballot. From his website, he seems like a perfectly sane conservative whose issues are helping farmers and ranchers, protecting the Second Amendment, and improving the health care system (he is a pharmacist). Every vote he gets will come directly from Alme's hide. (V)