Dem
47
GOP
53
It's a big day at the polls tomorrow, with six states taking their turn holding primaries. California is the biggie, both literally and figuratively, but there are contests of interest in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as well. Let's jump right in; we're going to organize this by office:
Governorships: The gubernatorial race that everyone will be watching, of course, is the one taking place in the Golden State. Because of California's wonky system, there are actually 59 official candidates in the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). It is therefore at least possible that the next governor of California could be Barack Obama. Not the famous one we all know about, mind you, but Barack Denzel Obama Shaw, who legally changed his name to honor the two Black role models he most admires. This Barack Obama, like the other one, is a Democrat, as you might imagine.
That said, in the real world, it's pretty much down to three candidates. There were four reliable polls of the race released in the last few days, and there they are, with all candidates who broke at least 5% in one of the four:
Pollster Hilton Bianco Becerra Steyer Porter Mahan Emerson College 23% 12% 28% 23% 5% 5% PPP 20% 14% 18% 22% 7% 7% McLaughlin & Associates 25% 10% 19% 21% 7% 6% Kreate Strategies 26% 9% 27% 20% 5% 4%
In short, it's a pretty close race, at least among the top three contenders. It's hard to know how many of the people saying they will vote for one of the hopeless candidates (e.g., Matt Mahan, Katie Porter) will stick to their guns, and how many will change their minds at the last moment and vote for a viable candidate. It is also hard to know what the impact of "gaming the system" will be. Steve Hilton (R) could lose votes of Republicans trying to get Chad Bianco (R) into the runoff. Or, the candidate whom voters perceive as the Democratic frontrunner (probably Xavier Becerra, D) could lose Democratic votes to the candidate whom voters perceive as the Democratic runner-up (probably Tom Steyer, D), in an effort to shut Republicans out of the election altogether.
Looking at all the polls, and knowing what we know, our gut feel is that the potential outcomes shake out something like this:
- Becerra vs. Hilton: 50%
- Steyer vs. Hilton: 35%
- Becerra vs. Steyer: 10%
- Some other matchup: 5%
Probably the most important point is that, despite all the usual hand-wringing, the Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to advance at least one candidate to the general election. At that point, the Republicans will be out of luck. Yes, we're in a "throw the bums out" era, and yes, there are a lot of things that California voters are angry about. But it's still a very blue state that really hates Donald Trump. A normie Republican might have a puncher's chance, but not one who hugs Trump close, as Hilton and Bianco both do.
Meanwhile, over in Iowa, things are going to be more interesting than they have been in a pretty long time. To start with, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) has decided that she's had enough. So, although she could run for a third term, she won't do so. The Democrats have already coalesced behind their candidate; it's going to be Iowa Auditor of State Rob Sand, whose current job is to make sure the other politicians are not wasting the taxpayers' money. On the Republican side, the bench is thinner than you might expect. Five candidates, including a former bureaucrat, two current/former state legislators, and a farmer who is going after the racist vote, are running. The favorite is Rep. Randy Feenstra, though polling has been pretty scarce (given that Ann Selzer is out of business), and what polling there HAS been has been all over the place.
What makes Iowa interesting is that it could end up as the canary in a coal mine for the Republican Party in 2026. Probably the best way to describe the last 10+ years of Iowa politics are "red, but blue-curious." And maybe that blue-curious stuff finally comes home to roost this year, given the headwinds facing the GOP. A few pollsters have tested out a Sand-Feenstra general election matchup, and they've all concluded Sand is the favorite. The most recent (but still pretty old) poll actually puts Sand ahead of Feenstra by 12 points, 51% to 39%. Meanwhile, the race raters have it as "Tossup" (Cook), "Lean R" (Inside Elections and Sabato), and "Tilt D" (Race to the White House).
There are also races in New Mexico and in South Dakota, but they aren't quite as interesting. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) is term-limited; the race to replace her is almost certainly going to feature former representative and former secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland (D) against Mayor Gregg Hull (R-Rio Rancho). There's been no polling of that general election matchup, but New Mexico is pretty blue, at D+4, Haaland is pretty popular, and Donald Trump is very unpopular. So, you have to presume the odds heavily favor Haaland to succeed Grisham.
South Dakota is even less interesting than that. It's a very red state (R+15), and the incumbent governor, Larry Rhoden (R), is running for reelection. Rhoden is actually not too popular, and could plausibly get knocked off by any one the three Republlian challengers—one recent poll had it at 23% for Rhoden, 22% for businessman Toby Doeden, 21% for Speaker of the South Dakota House Jon Hansen and 19% for Rep. Dusty Johnson. And three of the four candidates, with Hansen the exception, have come out on top in at least one recent poll. But they're all pretty interchangeable white MAGA Trumpers, and whichever one of them wins will then go on to trounce former state Senator Daniel Ahlers (D) in the general.
U.S. Senate Seats: Here, the contest of most interest is the one in Iowa. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who said some very impolitic things early in the campaign, decided not to run for a third term. There are two Republicans running to succeed her, Rep. Ashley Hinson and former state Sen. Jim Carlin. Hinson has raised $7 million to about $300,000 for Carlin, and the one poll of this primary had her up by 39 points, 58% to 19%, so she will presumably advance. On the Democratic side, it's state Sen. Zach Wahls against state Rep. Josh Turek. Wahls, who was raised by two lesbians (who married once they were legally able), is known for his LGBTQ activism. Turek is a former paralympian who has been working his rear end off doing retail campaigning around the state. Turek is a pretty heavy favorite to advance—recent polls have him up by around 20 points. Meanwhile, general-election polls have the (likely) Hinson-Turek general election contest as a toss-up. Or, if you prefer the race raters, three have it as "Likely R" (Inside Elections, Sabato, Cook), one has it as "Tilt R" (Race to the White House) and two have it as "Tossup" (RCP, The Economist).
The Senate race in Montana might end up being very interesting indeed, but... not tomorrow. Former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme (R) will destroy two unknowns on that side of the contest. However, he is the fellow who benefited from ballot manipulation, as he filed, and Sen. Steve Daines (R) withdrew his candidacy for re-nomination, in the 5 minutes before the deadline arrived. That the two men conspired in such an undemocratic manner could be a liability for Alme in the general.
Former state Rep. Reilly Neill (D) will probably advance on the Democratic side of the contest, and then the Democratic Party will tell all Democrats not to vote for her in the general (indeed, she might well drop out). Seth Bodnar (I), who will be the real Democratic candidate, won't even be on the ballot tomorrow, since he's not running as a member of a political party. This is, of course, a state that Jon Tester (D) represented in the Senate until 2 years ago. If Bodnar can unite independents and most Democrats, and can run against both Trump and the Alme-Daines conspiracy in this red-but-really-more-populist-than-anything-else state, then... who knows?
There are also Senate primaries in New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. All of them involve incumbents running for reelection—Cory Booker (D), Ben Ray Luján (D) and Mike Rounds (R), respectively. All three will lay waste to unknown challengers tomorrow, and then will win reelection in the general. The only drama in these contests, such as it is, is in the New Mexico race. The only Republican to formally file was Christopher Heuvel, who was disqualified. Now, the only Republican in the race is retired oil worker Larry Marker, who will need to collect at least 2,351 write-in votes in the primary in order to win the right to be crushed in the general. If he can't do it, then Luján will enjoy an uncontested general election.
Mayoralty: The race to be mayor of America's second-largest city, Los Angeles, has been... quite the show. Incumbent Karen Bass (officially I, but really D) is running. She has the benefits of incumbency, and of being backed by the Democratic machine, so she will advance to the second (and final) round of voting. However, she is not likely to clear 50% (if she did, the election would be over, and there would be no second round).
The other person in the race will either be City Councilwoman Nithya Raman (officially I, but really D) or reality TV star Spencer Pratt (officially I, but really R). Raman is an outspoken progressive and is, obviously, challenging Bass from the left. Pratt is, well, a prat. He has no business being associate dogcatcher of a small town, much less mayor of an important city, and he's been enmeshed in mini-scandal after mini-scandal during this campaign; he had to apologize for being a 9/11 truther, he had to basically reject the endorsement of Donald Trump, and he said that he understands the harm that ICE has done because "I've eaten more Mexican food than any white person in Los Angeles."
The biggest mess involves Pratt's living arrangements; He says his house was burned down in the Altadena fire (true), and that he's been living in a trailer on the property ever since because he did not have insurance and he doesn't have money to rebuild (half-true, at best). Reporters discovered Pratt has been living, at least part of the time, in a $1,500-a-night room at the Hotel Bel-Air paid for by his campaign. The candidate says he only stays there sometimes, and he does so mostly for security reasons.
The fact that Pratt's core issues (the fire, homelessness) are Bass' biggest weaknesses, and the fact that the city's Republicans have to vote for someone, have kept his candidacy afloat, even if he is a walking advertisement for the movie Idiocracy. Most polls have Pratt leading Raman by a couple of points or so. However far and away the highest quality poll from the last week, conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, had 26% of voters supporting Bass, 25% supporting Raman and 22% supporting Pratt. Either Democrat would certainly demolish Pratt in the general, while a Raman-Bass matchup is more likely than not to favor Raman. So, Bass will probably be casting her ballot for Pratt, as he's a much easier opponent for her.
There are a lot of House races that are of interest, either because they are in swing districts, or they are old guard vs. new guard, or they are Hillary vs. Bernie Part 322, or for some other reason. However, this item is already pretty long, and there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. So, we are going to preview the House races tomorrow. If readers have any suggestions as to House races in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico or South Dakota that we should look at, please do let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com. If you include a paragraph or two as to why they are interesting, all the better. (Z)