Dem
47
GOP
53
Glory, glory, hallelujah?
As we have noted, we don't think there is generally much use in passing along news about the Iran War negotiations, since it's mostly just posturing and PR right now. That said, there were developments yesterday, developments in the wrong direction, that we think we should probably mention. We're going to keep it brief, though.
To start, there is some renewed fighting, though it's mostly in Lebanon, between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. Negotiations may or may not be taking place; yesterday, Donald Trump said the negotiations were over, and that he did not care that was the case, and then he also said negotiations were ongoing, and were progressing at a rapid pace.
What is unquestionably true is that Iran's hand is very strong. That nation still has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, and thus over much of the world's oil economy. On top of that, news broke yesterday that the Iranians have done far more damage to U.S. military bases in the region than the White House previously admitted. Consistent with that, perhaps, the regime in Iran expended much oxygen yesterday threatening to open "new fronts" in the war.
Meanwhile, it appears to be the case that the deal hammered out by U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner is dead. There are two fundamental problems, both of them speaking to the weak position in which Trump finds himself. The first is that he is highly sensitive to signing off on any deal that is clearly worse than what the U.S. had under Barack Obama. Not only is that embarrassing to him, because Trump hates Obama, but it would also make the war hawks in the GOP furious.
So, after Witkoff and Kushner managed to secure an agreement that was only moderately worse than the one from the Obama years, Trump started trying to change the terms. He wanted a (very dubious) Iranian promise to stop enriching uranium for 5 years to be extended to 20 years. And he wanted the other nations of the Middle East to sign off on the Abraham Accords and to formally recognize Israel. Iran is not going to grant the former concession, and it hasn't got the power to grant the latter.
The second fundamental problem is that Iran wants something that Trump cannot deliver. As far as the Iranians are concerned, this is a war with two fronts, one in Iran and one in Lebanon. So, they insist that a peace agreement involve both fronts. Israel isn't particularly interested in playing ball here, especially since PM Benjamin Netanyhu knows full well that the overall peace deal, as negotiated by Witkoff and Kushner, absolutely throws his nation under the bus.
We have no idea what comes next. But we do know that these are not going to be easy problems to resolve. And we also know that every time Trump tries to renegotiate on the fly, Iran becomes less willing to trust him and his envoys, and less willing to take negotiations seriously. We wonder who gets to try next. J.D. Vance? Secretary of State Marco Rubio? Ivanka Trump? Kid Rock? Your guess is as good as ours. (Z)