Jun.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

A Great Night for Politics Junkies

Lots of voters in half a dozen states headed to the polls yesterday to choose candidates for November's general election. There are quite a few interesting storylines; here are the eight that stand out to us:

1. In California, There Are Things Known...: Polls close pretty late in the Golden State, there are a lot of voters, and the wonky top-two system adds complications on top of that. So, there are some answers in key races, but not all that many. Mayor Karen Bass (I, but really D-Los Angeles) will advance to a runoff. She got 36.4% of the vote, with 53% reporting, which is enough to be safe, but nowhere near enough to make a second round of voting unnecessary. All of the House incumbents running for reelection, save two, have already secured a spot in the general. In CA-11, which is open by virtue of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D) retirement, Scott Wiener (D) and Connie Chan (D) advanced, meaning Pelosi managed to flex her muscles one last time for the road and to power Chan into the next round. Those are about the only certainties.
   
   
2. And There Are Things Unknown: In the much-watched California gubernatorial election, things are still up in the air. With a shade over half the votes reported, Steve Hilton (R) has 27.6% of the vote, Xavier Becerra (D) has 25.5%, Tom Steyer (D) has 19.6% and Chad Bianco (R) has 11.3%. Bianco is done for; he barely won his home county (Riverside), and there's no way he can add enough votes to climb into second place. It will probably be Hilton and Becerra in the general, but there are enough votes still uncounted in Los Angeles and San Francisco that it's plausible for any two of the top three candidates to survive.
   
   Meanwhile, the two House races where an incumbent has not yet secured a slot in the second round are CA-06 and CA-07. In the former, Rep. Kevin Kiley (I), Michael Stansfield (R) and Richard Pan (D) are in a pitched battle, with 26.9%, 22.1% and 21.2% of the vote, respectively, and only 47% reporting. In the latter, Rep. Doris Matsui (D) has 30.7% of the vote, with 47% reporting, while Mai Vang (D) has 24.9% and Zachariah Wooden (R) is close behind with 24.1%.
   
   In the Los Angeles mayoral race, reality TV star Spencer Pratt (I, but really R) has 29.1% of the vote, while City Councilwoman Nithya Raman (I, but really D) has 21.6%. We can't find anyone who has a heat map of the race, so we can't tell where the missing votes are, but nobody has called it for Pratt, so the missing votes must be substantially from the southern and eastern portions of Los Angeles.
   
   We will clearly have to do another piece on California, either tomorrow or the next day, once the dust has settled a bit more.
   
   
3. A Poke in Trump's Eye: Mostly, Donald Trump was on the winning horse in the various races in which he endorsed. There was one very notable exception, however. In the hotly contested Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary, businessman and farmer Zach Lahn beat the Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra, 37.8% to 37.0%. This clearly reflects unhappiness with Trump's two wars—the trade war and the Iran War—both of which are hitting Iowans right in the wallet. What this means for the general election... well, who knows? The simplest explanation, but by no means the only possible one, is that many Trumpy Republicans stayed home because they weren't particularly motivated to get out and vote. If so, that certainly could carry into the general.
   
   What we CAN say about the Iowa gubernatorial race is that it's lining up about as well as is possible for the Democrats. Lahn is an unknown who has about $600,000 in the bank. The Democratic nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand, has already twice won statewide, is fairly popular, is a moderate, and has $18 million in the bank. We should probably also note that Iowa has elected a Democrat as governor as recently as 2006 (Chet Culver), so it's not like we're talking about, say, Nebraska or Idaho here (for those two states, you have to go back to the early 1990s to find a Democratic gubernatorial winner).
   
   
4. The Iowa Senate Race Will Be a Barnburner, Too: As the polls predicted, the race to replace Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) will pit Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) against state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Turek is the more moderate of the two Democrats who were in the running, was most certainly the "establishment" candidate, and has shown himself to be a skilled campaigner.
   
   It is, of course, more probable than not that the Senate race will go to the same party that wins the gubernatorial race. So, if there's a blue backlash in the Hawkeye State in November, then it could certainly propel both Sand and Turek to victory. One interesting thing about the Senate race is that the Hinson campaign has outraised the Turek campaign about 2-to-1 (roughly $6 million to $3 million), but that obscures the fact that most of the super PAC money has flowed in Turek's direction. In particular, VoteVets spent just shy of $10 million to help Turek secure the nomination.
   
   We don't entirely understand why VoteVets is so very interested in this particular race. Turek is not a veteran (though his father was), and his disability is thus not service-related. According to press releases, the vets see his struggle as mirroring that of those who have been wounded in combat. And Turek has certainly pushed for some pro-vet legislation during his time in the Iowa state House, though his support for veterans does not seem to be particularly more profound than that of other politicians, on either side of the aisle. Whatever the motivation is, if the veteran community is strongly in Turek's corner, that could be a big deal in November.
   
   Incidentally, if you would like to read the press release that VoteVets released congratulating Turek on his victory, and ponder the matter for yourself, it is here.
   
   
5. Independent's Day in Montana: In pretty much every important swing-y contest, the Democrats got what they wanted yesterday. That includes the U.S. Senate race in Montana. On the Republican side, it's going to be Kurt Alme, who conspired with Sen. Steve Daines (R) to claim the nomination by gaming the paperwork-filing process. On the Democratic side, in a mild upset, it's going to be Air Force Lt. Col. Alani Bankhead, who beat the more experienced and somewhat better known Reilly Neill, a former state representative.
   
   Bankhead, by all indications, is not a serious candidate. She did little campaigning, and raised a grand total of $15,240, of which she spent only $5,775 (by contrast, Neill raised $277,088). The reason that "not a serious candidate" is good news for the Democrats is that it is expected that Bankhead will either withdraw from the race, or will not spend much energy on campaigning. That will help clear the decks for the blue team's actual candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar (I). It is possible that between not having a (D) next to his name, Alme's undemocratic gamesmanship, and the unfriendly-to-Republicans political climate, Bodnar could attract enough independent and crossover votes to win this thing.
   
   
6. A Kean Opponent: Yesterday, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) communicated, through his staff, that he will be away from Washington even longer than expected (and he's already been gone-without-a-trace for 3 months). We wonder if we will ever find out what is wrong with him, such that it precludes him from even making a video or posting a photograph assuring the voters he (ostensibly) represents that he is OK.
   
   The ideal opponent to face Kean, in the EVEN NJ-07, would probably be a moderate woman who is young and vigorous and a veteran. And that is who the Democrats will have, as Rebecca Bennett easily outclassed the other three contenders for the Democratic nomination, taking 45.5% of the vote, to 20% for her nearest competitor. Will Kean even be able to campaign? Will New Jersey voters insist that he explain himself, and why he's been absent? Will he have to drop out, and be replaced by GOP pooh-bahs in the Garden State? These are all questions that undoubtedly are giving NRCC Chair Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) ulcers right now.
   
   
7. Throw the Bum Out: Even when the voters are in a "throw the bums out" kind of mood, they don't usually do it in the primaries. So, we won't really know if 2026 is that kind of year until November. However, one bum that is headed for an early exit is Gov. Larry Rhoden (R-SD), who managed to claim just 25.2% of the primary vote, which is pretty darn poor for an incumbent, even if he's only the incumbent because his predecessor, Kristi Noem (R), quit mid-term. The winner of the Republican nomination in that race, and thus Rhoden's probable successor, is businessman Toby Doeden, who took 30.6% of the vote in the four-way race. Donald Trump did not endorse in this race, because he does not like to put his batting average at risk if he can avoid it. So, Doeden did it on his own. His victim in November will be former state legislator Dan Ahlers (D), whose primary was uncontested.
   
   
8. Watch Out, Glass Ceiling: As expected, former representative and Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland (D) easily won her party's nomination for governor, taking just shy of three-quarters of the vote. She will almost certainly defeat the Republican nominee, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. If so, Haaland will become the first Native American woman to be elected as a state governor.

Again, once the rest of the results are known, particularly out west in California, we'll have a follow-up. (Z)