Dem
47
GOP
53
There are numerous primaries in June that will give Democratic politicians a good idea of where their voters are at. Maybe the voters will be clear about what they want. But voters being voters, they may be all over the map.
There are battles at two levels. First, there are the usual "Democrats in disarray" and "Bernie vs. Hillary part 945." Some voters care more about ideology than anything else. This is actually healthy. Democracy is supposed to be about the policy choices the voters want. In 2016, the Democratic voters said that they were not so interested in a $15/hr. minimum wage or Medicare for All. That is a valid policy choice. If the voters want it, good. If the voters don't want it, also good.
Second, some Democratic voters think that the worst Democrat is nevertheless better than the best Republican. For example, former Sen. Joe Manchin (D-Coal) was still better than Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Oil). Those voters vote in the primaries for the person they think is most electable in November, irrespective of that candidate's position on the issues. This is a perpetual challenge for the Democrats. In 2028, the first group may be partial to, for example, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) whereas the latter group may prefer Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY). We'll learn more starting after Nov. 4, 2026. Republicans are much more united and don't have this problem so much, although of late we are starting to see a MAGA vs. normie split just a little bit.
On May 26, we saw the ascendance of the winning-isn't-the-best-thing-it's-the-only-thing Democrats in Texas. Last week we saw it in Iowa, New Jersey and California. Let's take a look at some of the more ideological races in June and then look at the more generic ones being held tomorrow. But first, here is the remaining June schedule.
| Date | States |
| June 9: | Maine, Nevada, South Carolina, North Dakota |
| June 16 | Oklahoma |
| June 23 | Maryland, New York, Utah |
| June 30 | Colorado |
Now onto the hottest battles in June. Maine gets its 15 minutes of fame tomorrow, The Democratic senatorial primary in Maine is effectively over because Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) gave up rather than continually attack oysterperson Graham Platner for his Nazi tattoo and intemperate postings to social media over the years, Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see whether many Democrats vote for governor but not for him—as a kind of mini-protest.
The gubernatorial election is complicated, with ideological battles, dynastic politics, and more. The primary is ranked choice by party but the general election is one Democrat vs. one Republican vs. one independent and is first past the post. Here are the Democratic candidates:
Usually you can tell who's who by the endorsements, but the ranked choice system has some odd quirks. People and groups—including the candidates—are making recommendations for first choice, second choice and third choice. Bellows, Jackson, and Pingree are urging their supporters to vote for themselves as first choice, one of the other two as second choice and the remaining one as third choice. They are instructing their voters to pick King and Shah fourth and fifth or not at all.
Some of the unequivocal first-place endorsements are the Maine Education Association for Bellows; Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Khanna (D-CA) and many unions for Jackson; Granddad (and no one else) for King; Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME), Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), and multiple state legislators for Pingree; and the mayor of Lewiston for Shah. Clearly, Jackson is the progressive favorite and Pingree is the establishment favorite.
The top fundraisers are Pingree ($2.1M), King ($1.9M), and Bellows ($1.8M). Here are the May polls:
| Pollster | Dates | Bellows | Jackson | King | Pingree | Shah |
| Univ. New Hampshire | May 21-25 | 13% | 28% | 7% | 12% | 28% |
| Impact Research | May 19-21 | 15% | 24% | 9% | 16% | 32% |
| Pan Atlantic Research | May 8-18 | 10% | 12% | 24% | 9% | 29% |
| GQR | May 6-9 | 18% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 32% |
| Schoen Cooperman | April 30-May 2 | 16% | 13% | 21% | 15% | 28% |
Why is Shah doing so well despite not so much money and almost no endorsements? During COVID, he was on TV all the time talking about the situation and what to do. He was both authoritative and folksy and people liked him a lot.
Maine is one of the most rural states in the country and anything is possible here, especially with so much attention to the second- and third-place votes.
All the Republican gubernatorial candidates are opposed to ranked choice voting. Seven candidates are on the Republican ballot:
Bush and Charles have raised lots of money, $1.7M and $1M, respectively, The others, much less. Polling has Charles as the runaway frontrunner. He has only one endorsement, and it is from Newt Gingrich.
Republican state Sen. Rick Bennett is running as an independent. He could suck votes away from the Republican nominees. Remember that while New England states are solidly blue in presidential elections, they do elect Republican governors from time to time. Paul LePage (R) was elected governor of Maine in 2010 and 2014, for example.
Also competitive in Maine is the House race for ME-02. This is an open seat since Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is retiring. Five Democrats have filed: Joe Baldacci, Mathew Dunlap, Paige Loud, and Jordan Wood. Wood has raised $5.7M and spent nearly all of it. The second-highest-raising Democrat is Baldacci, who has raised $530,000.
Ro Khanna has endorsed Dunlap, even though Maine is about as far as you can get from Khanna's Silicon Valley district. That makes Dunlap the progressive favorite. On the other hand, DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) has endorsed Baldacci, whose brother was a former governor of Maine. All she cares about is getting a House majority. Wood has a few endorsements from mostly liberal U.S. representatives. Golden hasn't endorsed anyone.
The Republican candidate will be former governor Paul LePage. All the raters (Charlie Cook, Nathan Gonzales, and Larry Sabato) think LePage will win. The district is too red for any Democrat unless he acts like a Republican, as Golden did.
Now on to the ideological wars that could tear the Democrats apart.
Also voting tomorrow is Nevada. The Democratic gubernatorial primary features moderate NV AG Aaron Ford against progressive Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill, who is blitzing the state.
Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) is retiring and 11 Democrats across the spectrum are fighting for the nomination, even though NV-02 is R+7. Both frontrunners, Teresa Benitez-Thompson and Greg Kidd, have tacked hard to the left and oppose giving aid to Israel. Kidd has said Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. He has raised more money than all the other candidates combined ($563K). Some of the others are more moderate. In a way, it doesn't matter though because Cook, Gonzales, and Sabato all say it is safe Republican. Still, it does say something about how powerful an issue Israel is and how Democratic voters currently feel about it .
There are 14 Republicans on the ballot in NV-02. Trump has endorsed financial adviser David Flippo, and he is the likely next representative from the district.
There will also be ideological battles in New York in 2 weeks. One battle will be in NY-17, where Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is seeking reelection in a D+1 district that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. There are five Democrats on the ballot, but only two have much of a chance. Veteran Cait Conley is a moderate with establishment support. VoteVets is backing her but also other liberal groups and pro-Israel groups. Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson is a progressive backed by former Reps. Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman, Nina Turner, the Working Families Party, and Our Revolution. Conley has raised slightly more money. Each one has led in some polls. It could go either way.
Israel is also playing a role in two other NY House races as well. In NY-10, a D+32 district, progressive Brad Lander is challenging pro-Israel incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY). Lander is backed by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and other progressives. Goldman has the backing of Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and the entire Democratic establishment up and down the line. Both Lander and Goldman are Jewish and the district is heavily Jewish. Polling has been scarce, but an Emerson poll done May 16-17 has Lander at 57% and Goldman at 23%. However, a Schoen Cooperman poll done May 1-6 has Lander at 47% and Goldman at 42%. If Lander beats Goldman, who led the first impeachment of Donald Trump, that would be an earthquake.
Another battle against a Democratic incumbent is in NY-13, a D+32 district covering northern Manhattan and part of the Bronx. The incumbent is Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), who is also pro-Israel. Progressive Darializa Chevalier is backed by Sanders, Mamdani, and a large list of progressive organizations. Espaillat has been endorsed by Jeffries, Hochul, NY AG Letitia James, half a dozen unions, the League of Conservation Voters, the Congressional Black Caucus and AIPAC. There haven't been any recent polls. This means that there are at least three ideological battles in New York alone.
Maryland also votes in 2 weeks. Israel is also playing a big role there, especially in MD-05, the D+17 district from which Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) is retiring. There are 22 Democrats on the primary ballot. AIPAC has sunk $1 million into the campaign of pro-Israel Adrian Boafo, who is Black. However, the ads don't talk about Israel directly; they mostly attack Trump on immigration. Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) also backs Boafo. The Working Families Party supports former Capitol police officer Harry Dunn, as does Nancy Pelosi.
Another June battle is in CO-08, an EVEN district where Democrats are trying to unseat Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO). There, progressive state Rep. Manny Rutinel is opposing moderate state Rep. Shannon Bird. Bird voted against a bill that would have limited the state police from cooperating with ICE. Latino groups don't like that.
Finally, getting back to tomorrow's elections, people in the South and the North are also voting, namely in South Carolina and North Dakota. There is major action in South Carolina. The big race is for the Republican nomination for governor. Five heavyweights have filed:
Trump and Gov. Henry McMasters (R-SC) have endorsed Evette. Nikki Haley and Mark Meadows have endorsed Norman. State AGs from all over the country have endorsed Wilson. Nobody has endorsed Mace. Poor Nancy. Reddy is trying to buy the election.
The campaign has been ugly and personal, with salacious accusations and personal attacks rather than policy fights over taxes and other issues. The lack of specifics has bothered some voters. Evette's top three campaign points are: (1) Trump endorsed me, (2) Trump supports me, and (3) Trump wants you to vote for me. Not all voters like her all-Trump-all-the-time message, but in deep red South Carolina, his endorsement does carry a lot of weight.
The Democrats are also having a primary, but it has been decades since a Democrat was elected governor of the state. However, the primary is open, so Democrats could decide to vote in the Republican primary, either to vote for the Republican least likely to win or the Republican who would be the least dangerous as governor. Early voting ended on Friday.
Polling shows it is very close. The aggregators have Evette at 16% to 20% and Wilson at 15% to 19%, with Mace and Norman close behind. It will almost certainly go to a runoff later this month.
In the Senate race, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has drawn five primary opponents, including a motivational speaker, a hip hop artist, and an appliance repair executive. The only semi-serious one is Patrick Herrmann, a member of the Horry County Republican Committee. Suffice it to say that Graham will be the Republican nominee.
On the Democratic side, there are five candidates. The front runner is Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who ran for the House in 2022 and lost. Beating Graham won't be easy. For all Graham's many flaws, it is still South Carolina.
There are competitive Republican House primaries in SC-01 (Mace's district), SC-02, SC-04 and SC-06.
In SC-01, one of the candidates, Tyler Dykes, was convicted for attacking the Capitol on 1/6. Physician Sam McCown has raised more money ($1.5M) than everyone else combined, but Charleston County Councilor Jenny Costa Honeycutt is leading in the polls.
In SC-02, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) has a challenger, but Wilson will beat him easily.
In SC-04, Rep. William Timmons (R-SC) also has a challenger, but Timmons will be renominated easily.
SC-06 is the district of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC). The legislature didn't draw a new map to turn the district red, so Clyburn will survive, at least for the moment (he is 85).
Things are pretty meager election-wise in North Dakota. There is no Senate election and no election for governor this year. The state's one representative, Julie Fedorchak (R-ND), has a primary opponent in veteran and former foreign service officer Alex Balazs. This is a longshot challenge. Democrat Trygve Hammer has no opponent. In fact, it is amazing that even one Democrat filed.
There is also a ballot measure that would require future constitutional amendments to deal only with a single subject. This means that if some group has two or more items they want in the state Constitution, they have to put each one up for a separate vote.
As a reminder, here are the primaries after June.
| Date | States |
| July 21 | Arizona |
| Aug. 4 | Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, Washington |
| Aug. 6 | Tennessee |
| Aug. 8 | Hawaii |
| Aug. 11 | Alabama, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin |
| Aug. 18 | Alaska, Florida, Wyoming |
| Sept. 1 | Massachusetts |
| Sept. 8 | New Hampshire |
| Sept. 9 | Rhode Island |
| Sept. 15 | Delaware |
| Nov. 3 | Louisiana |
There are more Bernie vs. Hillary primaries in the summer (e.g., the Michigan Senate race), but we will cover these when the time comes. (V)