Jun.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

A Night of Few Surprises

Four more states—Maine, South Carolina, North Dakota and Nevada—took their turns holding primaries yesterday. Things went pretty much as expected. Here's the rundown:

• U.S. Senate, Maine: This was the star attraction, of course. The outcome was not in doubt, but the margin was. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was unopposed, and Graham Platner (D) is now officially the opponent she will face off against. With 80% reporting, Platner took 72% of the vote, as compared to 19.5% for already-threw-in-the-towel Gov. Janet Mills (D).
  
  It is very hard for us to accept that those Mills voters are going to take a pass on this race, or that they are going to become Collins voters. We thought that Platner's latest scandal could be a real dent in his armor, but the letters we've gotten (see below) suggest that Maine (and Democratic) voters just don't see it that way. So, we presume the Democratic vote will unify behind the party's now-candidate. And keep reading.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, South Carolina: The only other Senate seat up yesterday was the one in South Carolina. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) easily fought off a challenge from the right, taking 56.8% of the vote to 28.9% for "America First" fanatic Mark Lynch. Graham's opponent in the general will be physician Annie Andrews, who easily won the Democratic nomination with 61.5% of the vote. She should savor her victory, because it's the last one for her this cycle.
  
  
• Governor, Maine: Because those crazy kids in Maine used ranked-choice voting for primaries, there's no knowing who the ultimate nominees will be. Four Democrats claimed at least 20% of the first-place votes, as did three Republicans. Any of those seven (including the Bush and the Pingree who are running, but not the King) could advance. The most interesting thing about the gubernatorial election, at least so far, was the turnout. There were about 225,000 votes on the Democratic side of the contest, and about 140,000 on the Republican side. Both races were competitive (as compared to the Senate race, where there was no Republican contest at all). These very different totals suggest Democratic enthusiasm is high, Republican enthusiasm is much less so. If that is true, it's good news for Platner and for the blue team's hopes of recapturing the Senate.
  
  
• Governor, South Carolina: The Democrat here is going to be state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, who is young, Black, charismatic and doomed. He got enough votes that he won't have to deal with a runoff, and can advance directly to the general, where he will lose. On the Republican side, the Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette got 28.9% of the vote, while state AG Alan Wilson took 26.1%. The President's endorsement does not seem to have helped much. In any event, Evette and Wilson will have a runoff on June 23 to see who gets to replace the term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Meanwhile, Rep. Nancy Mace (R) finished a distant fifth in that primary, with 12.1% of the vote. Such is the price that you pay if you dare to challenge the throne.
  
  
• Governor, Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) claimed 90.9% of the vote, and so easily won the right to run for reelection. He will face state AG Aaron D. Ford (D), who got 63.8% of the ballots on that side of the contest. Ford is keeping things simple; his platform has four planks: housing, health care, energy and education. About 175,000 votes were cast on each side of the primary, so this one could be a barnburner. The race raters all have it with a slight Republican lean, the polls so far give Lombardo a lead of about 1.5 points.
  
  
• ME-02: Four House seats that are in "swing" territory, all of them currently in Democratic hands, were on the various ballots yesterday. That includes the R+4 ME-02, which is open because Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is retiring. The Republican is going to be Paul LePage, as he was unopposed. Three Democrats are neck-and-neck, with state Sen. Joe Baldacci, former Congressional aide Jordan Wood and Maine State Auditor Matthew Dunlap all between 28.7% and 31.7%. Maine's ranked-choice system means this one will take a little while to sort out. It won't be easy to hang onto an R+4 district against the well-known (if somewhat notorious) LePage, but if Platner proves to have coattails, anything is possible.
  
  
• NV-01: The other three swingy seats are all in Nevada. In the D+2 NV-01, Rep. Dina Titus (D) easily won renomination, and will face off against state Sen. Carrie Ann Buck (R), who has Donald Trump's endorsement. Not sure how much of a selling point that is in a state whose tourist industry has been hit hard by Trump's cold war against Canada.
  
  
• NV-03: In the D+1 NV-03, Rep. Susie Lee (D) also won renomination easily. She will be opposed by composer Marty O'Donnell, who is also Trump-endorsed. This district is where most of Las Vegas is located, so if there's anywhere Trump is likely to be a liability, it's here.
  
  
• NV-04: Rep. Steven A. Horsford (D) had no primary opponent in this D+2 district. He will now face off against Cody K. Whipple (R), who sounds like the mascot for some sort of dessert topping, but who is actually a rancher and who does NOT have Donald Trump's endorsement. This is strange, because Whipple was clearly going to win, and Trump loves every easy opportunity to increase his batting average.

Next up is Oklahoma, where—spoiler alert!—Republicans are going to win everything. (Z)