Jun.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Hilton Secures His General Election Booking

Not every outlet has called it, but Decision Desk HQ certainly has, and we think they have the right of it. The California gubernatorial election is going to be a matchup between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.

Here are the vote totals as of 11:30 p.m. PT yesterday:

There are estimated to be about 856,000 votes outstanding. In the roughly 4 million votes that have been announced since Election Day, Tom Steyer has made up about 3% on Hilton. He's not going to make up another 2.5% from the remaining number. Sorry, Tom, there's $200 million down the drain. You and Mike Bloomberg should form a club and commiserate.

With the primary out of the way, Becerra can now commence his glide path to becoming the next governor of California. We have put the odds of a Becerra victory at 95%, and here are half a dozen reasons why:

1. Blue California: The Golden State has a PVI of D+12. As we have discussed several times recently, that is very near the upper limit for a flip. And even then, it usually requires an unusually damaged majority-party candidate, or some issue that has absolutely clobbered the party in power. Yes, Californians are unhappy about homelessness, but that is not going to be enough for Hilton to overcome that extreme a PVI (and see below).
   
   
2. Blue Wave: Also, as we have written approximately a million times, it figures to be a blue wave year. And a rising tide lifts all (blue) boats. Though the statewide races are not likely to be competitive, California Democrats will be out in force to make sure as many Democrats get elected to the House as is possible.
   
   
3. Anti-MAGA California: It is true that more Californians than Texans voted for Donald Trump, but that is only because the state has so many people. The fact is that California, on the whole, loathes the President, not only because of his general behavior, but because he has specifically thumbed his nose at the Golden State many times (particularly as regards assigning blame, and withholding aid, for wildfires). In his three presidential elections, Trump took 38.3%, 34.3% and 31.6% of the California vote. A candidate who is joined at the hip with him, as Hilton is, is not likely to improve much on that.
   
   
4. Hasta La Vista, GOP: California has actually been a blue state since 1934. And yet, for many years, the governorship changed hands on a regular basis, and it was held by many prominent Republicans, most obviously St. Ronnie of Reagan. What made that possible is that a lot of the arrivals in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s who made the state blue were some version of Southern Democrats (e.g., the Okies), who were certainly more than willing to consider conservative candidates.
   
   These days, most California Democrats are from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, and are not willing to consider conservative candidates. The GOP has been an endangered species at the state level for about 30 years, with the main exception to that being Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served as governor from 2003-11. However, he had massive celebrity appeal, was VERY moderate, and he first claimed the governorship in a wonky recall election. The last time a standard Republican won a standard California gubernatorial election was when Pete Wilson did it in 1994, more than 30 years ago.
   
   
5. Yo Soy Mexicano: Identity politics is a thing. California is 41% Latino and, more specifically, about 32% Mexican. Further, there could well be an extra surge of support, along the lines of what happened with Barack Obama in 2008, since Becerra is in line to break a glass ceiling that has been in place since Pío Pico fled the governorship of Mexican California in 1848. It's been nothing but white men in that chair since.
   
   
6. Carpetbagger: While Becerra is the son of immigrants and was born in Sacramento, Hilton is British-born, and only gave up that citizenship last year. He has lived in California for only a little more than a decade, and has a habit of demonstrating his lack of familiarity with California culture, such as not knowing what a street taco is actually made from. Californians don't disdain carpetbaggers the way Southerners do, but even they prioritize an authentic Californian over a much-less authentic one.

There has been one quality poll of the Becerra vs. Hilton matchup, and it had Becerra taking 58% of the vote to 35% for Hilton, with just 2% preferring a third-party candidate and just 5% of voters undecided. Those are very grim numbers for the GOP, of course, because Hilton would not only have to take all the undecideds and hold on to all of his voters, he'd have to flip about one Becerra voter in ten. That is a tall, tall mountain to climb.

And now that the race is set, we very much hope that some reporter will ask Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA): "If California Democrats are manipulating the election results 'upstream,' as you claimed, then why would they involve themselves in the L.A. mayoral election, and yet put the governorship at risk?" It would be fun to see the steam coming out of the Speaker's ears. (Z)