Dem
47
GOP
53
Inflation jumped to 4.2% in May, the first time it has passed the 4% mark in 3 years. Here is a graph of inflation since 2021:
Note that while overall inflation is 4.2%, if food and energy is removed, then it is only 2.9%. Put in other terms, food and energy are going up faster than everything else. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the things people notice most are food and energy (especially gasoline and electricity) and they are leading the charge upward. And both of these are more likely to get worse than better shortly (see below). Here is a chart showing some specific price increases since Jan. 2025. Feel free to call this the "Trump Bump":
An immediate consequence of the inflation report released yesterday is that the Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates now. That would stoke even more inflation. Donald Trump thought that by appointing Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, he would get the lower interest rates he so desires (because it is good for the real estate business). Getting a majority of the Fed Board to cut rates now is probably not going to happen. In fact, a rate increase is even possible now, especially if inflation hits 5%. Warsh may personally want to cut rates as a reward for his getting the job, but another faction, led by former chairman Jerome Powell, is not going to support that. Not getting a rate cut will drive Trump nuts—especially if Warsh votes for an increase, which is still a possibility, despite what he has said in the past.
While voters may not understand macroeconomics, it is not hard for Democrats to explain to the voters that: (1) prices are sky high and still rising and (2) it is fault of Donald Trump's trade war and Iran War and the fault of the Republicans in Congress who are refusing to stop him. There isn't a good answer a Republican House candidate can give to this. Blame it on Joe Biden? By November, Trump will have been in office almost 2 years. Good luck with that.
Yesterday, Trump said something that he may come to regret. He said: "I love the inflation." He went on to talk about Iran, but a tightly edited clip of him just saying "I love the inflation" could just maybe find its way into Democratic ads in the fall, followed by some ordinary American saying, "Well, I don't like inflation at all. I can't afford it." (V)