Dem
47
GOP
53
The redistricting follies are largely over now. Who won? Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics crunched the numbers and come up with an answer.
In the end, 10 states changed their maps this year. Collectively the new maps affect nearly 42% of the House seats. Not every district in all 10 states was redrawn, however. Kondik produced a table showing the number of districts in each rough PVI bracket in 2024 and now. Here it is:
The top three rows are where Donald Trump got at least 55% of the vote in 2024. There were 187 such safe red districts in 2024. There are still 187 in total, but not quite as red because Republicans pulled red precincts out of these deep-red districts to flip previously blue districts.
In the bottom three rows, there were 163 more-or-less safe blue seats. Now there are 160 of them.
The middle three rows (in purple above) are the most competitive. There were 85 competitive districts before and now there are only 70. This is because the gerrymanderers on both sides tried to take swing districts and make them more partisan. The number of very closely balanced districts, where Trump got between 49% and 51% of the vote in 2024, has dropped from 26 to 21. What increased was the number of D+5-10 and R+5-10 districts as the gerrymanderers tried to construct reasonably safe (but not totally safe) districts.
Overall, there are now 14 more districts where Trump got 55% of the vote or more and only one more district where Trump got 45% or less. This is where the Republicans will pick up net seats. Kondik predicts that the Republicans will net about 5-9 seats as a result of the shenanigans. (V)