Jun.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

In Congress: Johnson Can't Pull a Rabbit Out of His Hat

Let's start this item by taking a look at our list of Congressional retirements, and whittling that down to the Republican members who are trying for a promotion (or, at least, a different job than the one they already have). Here's that list:

By and large, everyone here voted with Donald Trump on nearly every vote (though Mace, of course, voted against him on the fateful Epstein files vote.) And among the dozen of them who have already faced primary voters, three made it to the general, three more have a runoff coming up, and six have gone down to defeat. Put another way, fully half of them couldn't even make it past the primary stage.

Meanwhile, let us also consider the fates of some folks who tried to be Trump loyalists, and who wanted to keep their current jobs, but who were run out of town on a rail. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) retired "voluntarily." Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) retired un-voluntarily. Same for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX).

The point here is that fealty to Donald Trump has not been great for members' career prospects. In some places, hugging Trump close and hoping there isn't a challenge from the right is probably the best and only strategy, but in swingier districts and states, Republican members are going to think long and hard about whether there might be some wisdom in putting some distance between them and a president who is very unpopular.

We write all of this as prelude to the news that there was something of a rebellion on the Hill yesterday. There are two, related, points of contention. The first is that the members overwhelmingly do not want Bill Pulte to serve as DNI, even on an interim basis. The second is that Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act expires tonight, and until it is renewed, then the U.S. government will be limited in the intelligence about foreigners that it can collect. Or, at least, it will be limited in the intelligence it can collect legally.

The White House gave the members some of what they want, nominating U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton to be the permanent DNI. Clayton is yet another former Trump lawyer, has no particular experience in intelligence, and has certainly played along with some of Trump's most conspiratorial thoughts. On the other hand, he's got an impressive résumé, he's done good work at SDNY, and members on both side of the aisle say they like his chances of confirmation.

The problem with the Clayton nomination is twofold. First, Trump made it after the House had recessed for the rest of the week, and through next week. This has some members suspecting he did that deliberately, so that the job would remain open for at least a couple of weeks. Second, Trump refuses to back off on Pulte serving as interim during that time. The general impression this all gives is that Trump wants to find a way to give Pulte time to wreak some havoc, with FISA still in place, before a permanent DNI takes over.

And so, as the White House was dragging its feet, the House took a vote on a temporary extension to FISA. And the measure failed, 198-218, with 7 Democrats voting for and 19 Republicans voting against. And that's actually a bigger fail than it seems, because Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) used the fast-track process that requires a two-thirds majority for passage. Johnson blamed the Democrats for playing partisan games and yadda, yadda, yadda, but again, 19 Republicans crossed the aisle. And now, the House won't be back in Washington until June 23.

There's no way to know, at the moment, if this is just an isolated incident, or if stormy weather is ahead when it comes to Trump and the Republicans on the Hill. What we can say, however, is that there are certainly a few clouds on the horizon. To start, given the various setbacks he's dealing with right now, Trump is reportedly furious with everyone right now, and is lashing out on a regular basis. Particularly in his doghouse: congressional Republicans, who he blames for the Epstein files, the ballroom money, the Pulte rebellion, the pushback on the Iran War, and a host of other things.

Meanwhile, it was reported this week that Social Security is in critical condition, and that the trust fund is now expected to run out in 2032, if steps are not taken to shore it up. Many Republicans are scared witless of facing voters in November, and saying, "Sorry! Couldn't do anything." On the other hand, Johnson went on a radio talk show yesterday and said that this is a good opportunity to finally cut some of this wasteful social spending. That's an unpopular position, to say the least.

There's also the possibility of a third reconciliation bill, which Trump wants to use to lavish money on the troops. This week, Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY) made clear that it's not happening, as far as they are concerned. "I would just suggest that it is taking a terrible risk and creates instability when you're counting on a third reconciliation bill for the bulk of the money rather than doing base funding through the defense appropriations bill," said Collins, while McConnell added: "I think it's safe to conclude there will not be another reconciliation bill, so it's really not an option."

So, there are a few friction points between the White House and the Congress already cued up. Meanwhile, the Democrats are sitting back and licking their chops. They've already started work on H.R. 1, which is the symbolic "this is what we'll do if we get control of Congress" bill that serves as something of a party platform in midterm years. And the donkeys are getting bullish about the Senate; indeed, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved three races in the Democrats' direction: North Carolina is now "leans Democratic," while Alaska and Ohio are now both "toss up."

What it all means is that there could be some serious fireworks in D.C., well before the July 4 holiday in 3 weeks. It may make this weekend's White House cage match look like child's play. (Z)