Jun.15

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

There Are Elections in Three States Tomorrow

Oklahoma has a primary tomorrow and Alabama and Georgia have runoffs. Let's take a look:

• Oklahoma: When Markwayne Mullin resigned from the Senate to become Secretary of Homeland Security, Gov. Kevin Stitt (R-OK) appointed Alan Armstrong to the Senate. However, Armstrong's Senate career will be short because Oklahoma law prohibits appointed senators from running for a full term. In principle, there should be a wide-open battle for the Republican nomination. However, when Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), a multimillionaire McDonald's franchisee, jumped in, the entire Republican establishment fell in line and no other serious candidate filed, so Hern will get the nomination. Five Democrats filed but all are low-profile and none have a snowball's chance in Hell to win the general election.
  
  Stitt himself is term limited, so the race for governor drew more attention than the race for senator, with nine Republicans on the ballot. AG Gentner Drummond (R) got in early. Then former Oklahoma House Speaker Charles McCall (R), and former state Sens. Mike Mazzei and Jake Merrick (both R) got in. Then the son of former governor Frank Keating, Chip Keating (R), joined the pack. A couple of local businesspeople are also running. Recent polling has Drummond and Mazzei leading, with Keating not far behind. A runoff on Aug. 25 is virtually certain. Three Democrats have filed, for some unknown reason.
  
  Hern's open R+11 district, covering Tulsa and its suburbs, attracted 11 Republicans who got on the ballot. State Rep. Mark Tedford is probably the best known of those, and the only current elected politician running. Former majority leader of the Oklahoma Senate Kim David (R) is also in. Pastor Jackson Lahmeyer (R) is running, too. His claim to fame is that during the COVID epidemic, when churches were ordered to close to save lives, Lahmeyer proudly refused. He also founded Pastors for Trump. His church's website boldly states: "We believe the Bible is the inspired, infallible, incorruptible and authoritative Word of God." His top campaign issue is securing the border. Which one? Oklahoma borders Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri. It is not especially close to any foreign countries. Rudy Giuliani has endorsed Lahmeyer. Is Rudy still alive? If so, has he nothing better to do than get involved in an Oklahoma House race? Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) also endorsed Lahmeyer. There haven't been any public polls, but Tedford, David and Lahmeyer are all plausible winners.
  
  
• Alabama: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) is running for governor of Alabama, leaving behind an open Senate seat. Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) wants that seat and is facing off against businessman Jared Hudson for the Republican Senate nomination. Moore is somewhat ahead in the polling. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the seat, assuming no dealbreaker sexual dalliances come to light. Two Black Democrats, Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett, are duking it out for the opportunity to be crushed in November. The gubernatorial race is already set: Tuberville vs. Doug Jones (D).
  
  
• Georgia: The big one here is the Senate nomination race between Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) and Derek Dooley (R), a football coach who hasn't lived in Georgia for decades. Donald Trump just endorsed Collins. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) has endorsed Dooley. If Collins wins, Trump will lord it over Kemp that his guy won and Kemp's guy lost.
  
  Of course, Trump waited until the very end to endorse, so he had a pretty good idea of who would win the runoff and then "cleverly" backed the winning horse. For the Democrats, a Collins win would be good news because Collins is an extreme right-winger who might be too much to stomach for normie Republicans. Then they might either stay home in November or even vote for Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who was unopposed on his side of the primary.
  
  Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) won her gubernatorial primary outright. The Republican runoff will be between Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and wealthy healthcare executive Rick Jackson, who is trying to buy the governorship. Recent polls put Jackson slightly ahead. He would be a much easier target for Bottoms, as healthcare executives rank only slightly above used car dealers in the public esteem.
  
  For Democrats, a Collins win for the Senate and a Jackson win for governor would put two major offices in play. In a blue wave, Democrats could win both of them. Dooley and Jones would be the preferred combination for Republicans. (V)