Dem
47
GOP
53
Once again, Donald Trump is saying that the war in Iran is nearly over. He has said this dozens of times already, but this one feels different. He is desperate to get the war over because gas prices may kill the Republicans in November. He is looking for a way to get it over, even if he has to surrender (provided he can avoid calling it that). Iran holds all the cards and he is gradually becoming aware of that.
The U.S. and Iran are apparently working on a memorandum of understanding, which is more of a start to the peace process than the end of it. Reports of what is in it are sketchy, but Reuters is reporting that it will contain the following items:
From the U.S.' point of view, spending $30 billion and having 14 American soldiers and countless Iranians and others die gets us back to the status quo ante. The Strait will be open again, just as it was before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. Only Iran now knows it can close the Strait anytime it wants to in the future and eventually the other guys will cave.
From Iran's point of view, the country suffered some damage to its infrastructure, but with $25 billion flowing in, Chinese companies can be hired to repair it. The hated sanctions are now gone and Iran can sell all the oil it can produce wherever it wants to. The nuclear program can continue as long as it is done under the radar (both literally and metaphorically). Even if the U.S. discovers the violation, what is Trump going to do about it? Start another war? Very unlikely. Bleat? Probably.
Also remember, an MoU is not a final treaty ratified by the Senate and by Iran. It is just the start of discussions, really. There could be many stumbling blocks along the way.
One of Trump's many goals in Iran was regime change. He got it, but not quite the way he envisioned it. He replaced the authoritative and highly respected (but feeble) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with his inexperienced son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is going to be a pushover for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In effect, Trump replaced a brutal theocracy with an equally, if not more brutal, military junta that can now dictate military, economic, and diplomatic policy. This does not benefit the U.S. in any conceivable way.
Democrats are already criticizing the deal. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, went on Fox yesterday to say that the proposed deal gets less from Iran than the deal Barack Obama made and Trump killed. Reed called it Trump's birthday present to himself. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), who is on the House Armed Services Committee, called the deal "basically a surrender document." When the deal is finally released, there will be massive criticism from both sides of the aisle, especially if the Reuters report proves to be essentially correct and Iran won many important concessions and the U.S. didn't get anything it didn't have before spending tens of billions of dollars and costing many people their lives.
Nevertheless, there is one good thing that came out of the war, although it is long term. Many countries now know how dependent they are on oil from the Gulf and how easily it can be blocked. This means there is likely to be a huge push to rev up alternative energy sources, especially solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear. This will occur at both the governmental level and the individual level. Governments will initiate or boost programs to reduce oil usage and individuals who can will install solar panels so they can fuel their new electric cars for free. It would be ironic if history books in 100 years remembered Donald Trump as the man who started the revolution that saved the planet from cooking. (V)