Dem
47
GOP
53
A new analysis of AP/NORC polls since July 2024 has some ominous news for Donald Trump. By looking at polls over time, a clear trend can be established. Probably the biggest takeaway is the drop of support for Trump among independents, especially young Black and Latino independents, primarily among working-class voters.
About 43% of independents voted for Trump in 2024, up from 37% in 2020. Here is a bar graph showing support for Trump by partisanship in five periods since the 2024 election.
As you can see, support for Trump among Republicans and Democrats has not changed a lot, but support among independents has taken a big hit. Since independents are now the biggest group in many states, losing them is going to hurt.
The issue that is driving the independents away from Trump is prices, especially food and gas. Many independents, especially working-class independents, voted for Trump because he promised to lower prices. They see that: (1) he has not lowered prices and (2) he seems to be mostly busy with foreign affairs and isn't even trying to lower prices. This souring of the independents is going to be bad news for the Republicans in November. (V)