Dem
47
GOP
53
When the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, the news was "Democrats in dismay." After all, Southern states were falling all over each other in the race to see who could eliminate Black-majority districts the fastest. Some made it, some didn't, but the laggards will be back in 2027 to try again.
It turns out that Newton's third law (for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction) applies not only to rockets but also to politics. Black voters are keenly aware of the decision and the decision could motivate more of them to vote this year. Former DNC chair Donna Brazile said: "It could be a game-changer across the country, especially in these marginal districts where candidates win by less than 2 percent of the vote."
The DCCC has noticed this heightened interest and is targeting 18 districts in which Black voters make up 12-33% of the voting-age population. A few are swing seats that Democrats are defending, like NC-01 (Don Davis, R+1). However, others are pickup opportunities, including MI-10 (John James, R+3), OH-10 (Mike Turner, R+3), and VA-02 (Jen Kiggans, EVEN). The DCCC believes that historical turnout among Black voters could flip these seats. Elaine Luria, who is running to unseat Kiggans, said: "This is a district where one in five or four voters are African-American." You can be sure Luria is going to run against the decision and the Supreme Court, a third of whose members are Trump appointees.
Barack Obama's pollster, Cornell Belcher, said that his polling shows 81% of likely Black voters were very motivated to vote in the midterms. He also noted that high motivation is rare this early in the cycle. In close races, a difference in motivation among some group can determine the winner.
Chairman of the Georgia Democratic Party Charlie Bailey noted that over 1 million Democrats voted in the recent primary vs. 940,000 Republicans. He said this is the largest edge Democrats have held in a primary since 1998. Bailey: "It [the decision] is pissing people off."
Some pollsters have noticed a difference between older Black voters and younger ones. The older ones remember Jim Crow and are outraged. Younger ones may not realize how things used to be and are less outraged. To deal with that, the DCCC is running this ad digitally to provide younger voters some historical background:
Nevertheless, some people, like Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, think that the Democrats are focusing on white women too much and need to put more emphasis on getting Black voters motivated to vote. (V)