Dem
47
GOP
53
As long as we are on the general subject of sausage-making, let's also take a look at an excellent piece that Jim Newell wrote for Slate yesterday under the headline "The Legend of Susan Collins." It's a deep dive that endeavors to explain how Susan Collins manages to keep defying the political gravity that has otherwise turned Maine blue.
If you really like knowing about nuts and bolts, then it's worth reading the whole piece, even if it's something like 4,000 words. But Newell argues that the secret of Collins' success, in a word, is "pork." She is legendarily good at bringing home lots of bacon to Maine, even if that state is better known for a different non-kosher meat. The Senator has spent her entire career building her pork-producing operation, and now that she's chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, the operation has shifted from mere "light speed" into "ludicrous speed."
The Senator is not only very good at securing money for Maine, she's also good at distributing it effectively. That is to say, she's built relationships with key interest groups in the state—firefighters, scientists, small business owners—and made sure they know she's got their backs, financially. Similarly, Maine is the oldest state in the union, with a median age of 45. This being the case, it's no surprise that Collins is the Senate's biggest fan of research money for diseases that disproportionately affect the elderly (in particular, Alzheimer's and diabetes). She's also mindful of geography, and makes sure that each of Maine's 16 counties benefits some from her largesse—a bridge here, a post office there, a small airport over there, etc.
Collins is also very good—or, at least, very shameless—when it comes to reminding Mainers about all that money, and where it's coming from. Pro-Collins super PAC commercials used to suggest that citizens call or write the Senator to thank her for her efforts. That's a little gauche, though, so now they suggest that citizens call or write her to urge her to keep fighting. Collins keeps careful track of exactly how much bacon she brings home, and makes sure everyone knows that number. For example, the press release she put out for FY 2025-26 puts the total at $428,643,000.
That total also speaks to why this approach to politics won't work for just any member. Again, it takes a lot of time and effort to build this kind of operation. Beyond that, however, $428,643,000 is an eye-popping number when talking about a state with a population of 1.41 million people. That's around $300 in federal spending for every man, woman and child. By contrast, in a very populous state like California, that kind of impact would require an outlay of $11,430,000,000. No senator can bring THAT much pork home.
Looking at the Collins-Graham Platner (D) tilt through this lens does bring a certain clarity to the dynamics of this closely watched race. As a left-wing populist, Platner is arguing that the little guys are being left behind, and that he will go to Washington and try to fix that. Collins, by contrast, is arguing that a rising tide lifts all boats, and that the money she brings home will help everyone, including the folks who have been left behind. You might describe the choice facing voters as "$300 in the hand vs. way more than $300 in the bush." The election could be decided by folks who feel that $300 in the hand just isn't enough anymore.
There's one other useful, non-financial, observation that Newell makes in his piece. In 2014, Collins won reelection by 37 points, 68%-31%. In 2020, she won reelection by just 9 points, 51% to 42%. That election is somewhat legendary because Collins so thoroughly outperformed the polls, which generally had her losing handily. However, the election was actually much closer than it looks, because in 2020 Maine was using ranked-choice voting for the U.S. Senate. Third-place finisher Lisa Savage took 5% of the vote, and she had urged her supporters to rank Democrat Sara Gideon second. Since Collins cleared 50% in the first round, the ranked-choice ballots were never tabulated, but it's probable that Gideon would have picked up another 4.5% or so. If so, then Collins went from winning by 37 in 2014 to winning by something more like 4 points in 2020. Needless to say, that trendline should have the Senator feeling "concerned." (Z)