Jun.18

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Latest Leak on the Iran MOU

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran was leaking out so much it was like it was being stored in a sieve. So, the White House decided to "release" the document. According to CNN here is the gist of the 14-point program.

1. Both sides agree the war is over.
2. Each country respects the other one and will not interfere in the other's internal affairs.
3. The two countries have 60 days to reach a final agreement, but they can extend the time.
4. The U.S. will end its naval blockade and remove its military forces from the area.
5. Iran will work to remove mines and other obstacles to marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The U.S. and its regional partners will create a fund of at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran.
7. The U.S. will end its sanctions on Iran and work to remove international sanctions.
8. Iran promises not to build any nuclear weapons.
9. Until the final agreement, Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program.
10. The U.S. Treasury will immediately issue waivers to Iran to export its oil and related products.
11. The U.S. will release all of Iran's frozen assets ($24 billion).
12. Some implementation mechanism will be devised later.
13. After the signing of the MOU, real negotiations will begin.
14. The final agreement will be approved by the U.N. security council.

Wow. When Japan surrendered in 1945, the victorious United States graciously allowed Japan to keep the Emperor as emperor. Here, too, the victor was equally gracious, as Iran is allowing Donald Trump to remain as president. This deal is roughly as balanced as the Japanese surrender. One side got almost everything, the other side got nothing. Only the tables are turned this time. This has to be the most ignominious defeat for the U.S. since Vietnam. There is no other way to describe it. It is in no way better than the deal Barack Obama reached with Iran and in many ways worse. Here is how it is worse:

1. Iran gets all of its frozen funds back.
2. All the economic sanctions on Iran are lifted.
3. Iran can now sell its oil anywhere it wants to.
4. The U.S. has now formally promised not to pursue regime change in Iran again.

In addition, U.S. taxpayers are going to have to cough up the better part of $300 billion to rebuild Iran as a much more modern and powerful country than it was. Count on part of that $300 billion being used to buy modern weapons from China.

Here are a few little things that are not mentioned in the MOU.

1. Can Iran keep funding Hezbollah, the Houthis and other proxies?
2. Will the final version be a formal treaty subject to a vote in the U.S. Senate?
3. Can Iran charge "fees" (aka tolls) on traffic in the Strait as a new permanent source of revenue?
4. What happens to the uranium Iran has already enriched?
5. Is Israel bound by any final agreement?
6. Will the U.S. have to close its bases in neighboring friendly Arab countries?
7. What happens if no agreement on uranium and other issues is possible?

This is an unmitigated disaster for the U.S., a complete capitulation, getting nothing in return except a meaningless promise not to build a nuclear weapon, something Iran had already promised and was actively ignoring. One fine day it will test the weapon and just say "We changed our mind."

We are not the only ones who think that. It didn't take long before now-free-to-speak-his-mind Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) said: "The details that I've seen so far look... awful. This will go down as a tremendous foreign policy blunder." Expect more senators to say the same thing or worse after the final MOU is released. Mike Pence, if anyone remembers who he is, said the deal "smacks of appeasement." The agreement is not going to play well with many Republicans. In effect, Trump has a short-term problem (gas prices are up before an election) and he is willing to sell out the country long term to get rid of it. Most Republicans know this and a brave few are willing to say it out loud.

Democrats should be all over this, saying that Trump (not Vance) is negotiating a treaty with a foreign country and the Constitution requires that treaties with foreign countries be submitted to the U.S. Senate (not the U.N. Security Council) for ratification. This could get the attention of the American Firsters.

There are also critics of the MOU who are being a bit more discreet than Cassidy and Pence. CIA Director John Ratliffe has told Trump that he does not believe Iran will be willing to make the concessions Trump wants, namely to give up its goal of building a nuclear weapon. Sources say that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Hegseth are also skeptical. After all, why should Iran give up its dream? It withstood a massive attack on its nuclear facilities a year ago and another massive attack this year. Air power won't stop it. Only a ground invasion might, and Iran believes Trump will simply not do that because the political fallout will be greater than the radioactive fallout.

There is one aspect of this that has been underplayed and is indeed not clear yet and may not be for some time. Before the war, the old, enfeebled, and somewhat cautious Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was running the show. He was the absolute dictator. Now his injured and much less respected son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is nominally in charge. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is a government unto itself, may use this opportunity to actually take over running the country. There could be a power struggle coming up.

Also, the CIA believes that Junior is gay. The Guard could use this little tidbit to blackmail Junior because the Koran frowns upon homosexuality and most Islamic scholars (certainly in Iran) see it as a grievous sin. The deal could be: "We run the country and we won't expose you and you can hang out with anyone you want to and just be a figurehead, like King Charles III."" One potential change if the Guard takes over, Iran could stop being a theocracy and just become a normal military junta interested mostly in gaining and holding power, like so many others around the world. This could affect its foreign policy, especially with regard to Israel. This remains to be seen, though.

Late yesterday, Trump officially signed the MOU. And he did it in... the Palace of Versailles in France. It would be hard to think of a building more closely associated with disastrous treaties than that one. In the coming days, U.S. politicians will chime in, now that it's a done deal. In particular, the reaction of Republican senators will be interesting. Will they be like George Orwell on "black is white," "night is day," and say "defeat is victory"? Most of them will understand the significance of the defeat, but will they have the guts to say it out loud?

There is a broader lesson from the war that the U.S. military is not going to like. Having the biggest, meanest, baddest army, navy, marine corps and air force in the history of the world does not mean you can defeat a third-rate nation with no military at all to speak of. Previous presidents probably understood that and made sure the U.S. had many allies and exercised a lot of soft power so it didn't have to actually go to war so often.

The main job of the Secretary of "War" is to win wars, not to do push ups or lose wars in a humiliating way. We wouldn't be surprised if one of the victims of the war is Pete Hegseth. But there could be more. (See below).

If Democrats are smart, they will actively point about how all of Trump's reasons for starting the war were failures. There was no regime change, Iran's nuclear program was not destroyed, Iran's ballistic missiles are still being fired at Israel, and so on. All that he achieved was sky-high gas prices and more inflation. The conclusion: Trump is a failed leader who needs to be checked by Congress. This could work with normie Republicans.

For a point-by-point analysis of the MOU, see this piece written by two Australian journalists. (V)