Dem
47
GOP
53
Republicans used to care about things like low taxes for rich people, free trade, small government and a few other things, but now all they care about is getting the price of gas back to where it was before Donald Trump's war of choice. It may be too late.
(Gas) prices famously go up like a rocket but come down like a feather. First, oil will not start flowing in volume immediately. The Strait of Hormuz has to be cleared of mines before tankers will dare cross it. The U.S. has no traditional minesweepers, so it will have to rely on those of other nations, which could take some time to get to where they are needed and do their work thoroughly. Some of the mines may be on the seabed, so it could take a few weeks before the oil companies (and insurance companies) are sure the coast is clear, although some traffic could get through earlier by hugging the coast of Oman, where there are no mines. In addition to minesweepers, mine-hunting dolphins may be flown in. Most mines explode when they detect metal, so the dolphins are probably safe. Experts say it could take months before every last mine is found. Some companies with valuable cargoes that are not in a hurry may prefer to wait and let greedier companies test the waters. No oil or insurance company wants to own the Exxon Valdez accident, part II, except with a cargo of 10x more oil than the Valdez had. Even if you believe they don't care about the environment, the average modern tanker, fully loaded, is worth about $300 million. That's not chump change.
Then once the oil can flow, it has to be refined somewhere. That also could take some time, although some refined oil might be stockpiled in the Gulf. These delays are likely to affect the U.S. even though it does not import any oil from the Gulf. If Exxon can sell oil to South Korea at $120/barrel, it is not going to sell it to some U.S. refiner at $60/barrel.
The oil futures market is going to have to make an estimate of the future transit "fees" Iran and Oman will charge every tanker exiting the Strait and factor that into bids. To be on the safe side, they may be overly pessimistic, which will not lead to low prices. Also, oil company inventories have been eliminated. The companies want them refilled as a buffer against a resumption of hostilities. That means there will be an abnormally large demand for oil until all the inventories have been replenished, which will slow down price drops for consumers.
Once oil actually becomes available and the price of crude drops, oil companies have a choice: Keep prices high and make more money or drop prices and make less money. The demand for gas is extremely inelastic. If someone needs [X] gallons to get to work they can't realistically decide to cut back to 0.8[X] gallons. Food is more elastic. Families can switch from national brands to store brands, buy less steak and more chicken, or stockpile Hamburger Helper. Why should the oil companies pass on the savings to consumers when they can make bigger profits, at least for a while?
And then there is the psychology. Before the war, people were already saying that prices, inflation, and affordability were their top issues. Even if we go back to that, it is not going to help Republicans so much. Besides, once people have the idea that everything is too expensive and it is Trump's fault, they will be very slow to change. People will remember the high prices at least until November, especially if Democrats keep reminding them. Besides, the deal with Iran isn't going to make food and other prices go down. (V)