Jun.19

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The Iran War: Donald Trump Did Not Ace This Test

The reviews are in, and pretty much everyone hates the Iran deal. We're going to share some select quotes, in groups of five.

First, some analyses from experts on the Middle East and/or national security:

1. Ian Bremmer and Firas Maksad, Foreign Affairs: "After nearly four months of fighting, concerns over Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile arsenal, and support for proxies across the Middle East remain largely unresolved. The regime that Trump set out to change is still standing, and it may now be set to receive economic relief in exchange for restoring free passage in a strait that was open before the war began. Iran has emerged from the conflict battered but in a stronger strategic position, with its regime and its ability to threaten the region intact. This outcome, after months of destruction and global economic disruption, is the greatest foreign policy failure of both of Trump's terms. And the consequences of that failure will persist long after the war ends, making the United States' growing strategic challenge in the Middle East even more difficult to address."
   
   
2. Brett McGurk, Former National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa: "From the text, it's remarkable how much the United States is offering for little in return. I've negotiated difficult agreements with Iran and this document stands out in providing Iran much of what it's demanded in the past—and rarely gotten."
   
   
3. Alan Eyre, Middle East Institute: "I have given up trying to divinate what U.S. policy is based on President Trump's statements because they change so radically. I mean, some of the things he said today, he could have been the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] spokesman in terms of justifications for this deal. But, no, we haven't achieved any war goals. Iran has maintained a significant missile and drone force. It will use whatever money it gets to a large extent to rebuild its defense industrial base."
   
   
4. Emily Harding, Center for Strategic and International Studies: "The deal itself is horrifically lopsided. Iran gets most of what it wants, and it gets it up front—before negotiations on a final deal even start. The United States gets very little. Israel gets even less. And there are still a great many trap doors through which Iran can escape, or through which the whole thing can fall apart."
   
   
5. Ray Takeyh, Council on Foreign Relations: "Wars are defined by their narratives. The much-touted MOU between Iran and the United States is greeted differently in each country. The Americans are talking of peace; the Iranians of victory."

Second, some comments from right-wing media and/or influencers:

1. Editorial Board, The New York Post: "Trump, talking with Qatar's ruler (!), actually claimed the regime has changed, since we killed off so many leaders and those who wound up in charge 'are very rational people,' 'nice to deal with,' 'not radicalized.'
   
   "Huh? It's the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps calling the shots over there now—the goons most committed to the radical agenda."
   
   
2. Mark Levin, Radio Talker: "When the dust settles, the American people are going to be furious. I'm warning my brothers and sisters. As we comb over the MOU for guarantees, the enemy won't give a sh*t. They're going through the motions."
   
   
3. Ben Shapiro, Professional Twerp: "This MOU appears to be a disaster that does not achieve any of the actual goals set by the administration at the beginning. The Vice President, the chief negotiator on this project has not well served the president."
   
   
4. Former Rep. Trey Gowdy: "How are we better off? What did we get? Don't we have midterms coming up? Are gas prices high? I mean, I hate to be cynical, but I don't think it's a national security document."
   
   
5. Joel Griffith, Fellow at Advancing American Freedom: "Make no mistake: This MOU is a capitulation to the Iranian terrorist regime, potentially more dangerous than Obama's JCPOA. This will rejuvenate a terrorist regime with nuclear ambitions committed to global ideological domination through terrorism."

Third, some comments from Republican members of Congress:

1. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX): "History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal."
   
   
2. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA): "Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.
   
   "Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades."
   
   
3. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS): "I am concerned that the memorandum of understanding negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury in ways that are completely out of step with the President's goals.
   
   Specifically, the $300 billion fund for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran—though not funded by U.S. taxpayers—would make Iran's payoff under President Obama's 2015 deal look like a pittance by comparison... I also oppose the U.S. lifting any sanctions on Iran, or unfreezing Iranian funds, in exchange for Iran's mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days. The Iranian regime has not renounced its ultimate goal—'Death to America, Death to Israel.' The regime will invest every penny it receives to further that aim."
   
   
4. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC): "We set out by saying we were going to drive down to zero their nuclear capability. Now we're equivocating on that. We said that we were not going to make the mistake that Obama did by sending them a plane full of cash. I got to reconcile the numbers there."
   
   
5. Anonymous House Republican: "He promised total surrender. And here it is."

We provide the first group of quotes to affirm that it's not just us who think the deal is a boondoggle. Everyone who knows, well, pretty much anything about the subject thinks that. We tried to find at least one or two people who wrote, "Well, it's not ALL bad for the U.S," but we couldn't do it.

The second and third groups of quotes represent the people whom Trump actually has to deal with. He cares a lot about what right-wing influencers think, and he needs nearly all hands on board in the Senate whenever there's a vote. The Iran deal, not to mention the DNI shenanigans (see below) won't make that easier.

That said, the administration's calculus here could not be clearer: Get gas prices down, at all costs. And Trump is undoubtedly patting himself on the back on that front, as the national average for a gallon of gas just fell below $4/gallon for the first time in a couple of months. That's down 13 cents/gallon from a week ago and 53 cents/gallon from a month ago. It is also possible, at least according to some analysts, that the price could drop below $3/gallon by the end of the summer.

There are, of course, no guarantees on that front. The petroleum economy is a strange beast, and any further disruptions to the supply chain (say, from hurricanes, or maybe from the war starting up again) could be disastrous. Further, even if gas prices do drop, Trump may already have an unshakable reputation as the "inflation president," making the Republicans the "inflation party." Many members of the GOP, both within the White House and without. fear that is the case.

There are, of course, other complications that could arise entirely separate from the gas prices. The one that sticks out like the sorest of sore thumbs is the $300 billion for Iran to rebuild. We stand by our position that it does not matter how that money is structured, it's a non-starter. And without the money, Iran is not likely to keep the peace. Oh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has calendars, and is aware of the significance of November 3. It would be not be out of character for them to act at the moment that it will do most harm to Trump and his party in the elections. (Z)