Jun.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

There Are Some Highly Contested Primaries Tomorrow

Voters in New York, Maryland and Utah go to the polls tomorrow for primary elections. South Carolina voters are voting in runoffs. Some of the races are bitterly contested. Let's start with New York since it has many very competitive races. The heated primaries there, mostly in deep blue districts, are riven by everything that divides Democrats: generational change, Israel, outside spending by AI and crypto groups, socialism and more:

• NY-07: Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D) is retiring from Congress and Assemblywoman Claire Valdez (D) and Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso (D) are competing to succeed her in the D+25 district covering parts of Brooklyn, Queens, and Long Island City. The district is about one-third Latino and one-third white. Valdez is a progressive and has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D-New York City), four unions and a dozen other organizations. Reynoso has the backing of Velázquez, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY). NY AG Letitia James, about a dozen unions, and several organizations. Fundraising is close and polling is close. It could be a cliffhanger and will be a test of Mamdani's influence.
  
  
• NY-10: Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) is defending his D+32 turf in lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn against NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (D), who ran for mayor of NYC last year and lost. Lander is running as a progressive and has the backing of Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mamdani, a long list of state and local officials, and a dozen organizations and unions. It is rare for a progressive congressman like Goldman, who managed Donald Trump's first impeachment, to draw an opponent with so much support. On the other hand, Goldman has the backing of the current and former House leadership, many state and local officials, a dozen unions, and many organizations, from AIPAC to Planned Parenthood. Goldman has raised $4.3 million to Lander's $1.4 million. However, all the recent polls favor Lander. Both Goldman and Lander are Jewish, but Lander is more critical of Israel than Goldman. The Republican sacrificial lamb in November will be Jennifer Moore, the only person who filed.
  
  
• NY-12: This upper Manhattan district is the wealthy D+33 district from which Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) is retiring. There is a battle royale in the Democratic primary among four people currently registered as Democrats: Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, JFK's grandson (Caroline Kennedy's son) Jack Schlossberg, and Trump-hating former Republican George Conway and a smattering of others. Bores' issue is regulating AI and opposing Big Tech. Lasher has decades of experience in politics, Schlossberg is aiming at older Democrats who fondly remember JFK and would love Camelot II. Conway's pitch is his undying hatred of Donald Trump. Bores and Lasher both have support from many national, state, and local Democrats. Schlossberg has the backing of his mom and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but not much more. No Democrats support lifelong Republican Conway. All four of them have raised millions. Polling has been all over the map, but recently Bores and Lasher seem to be leading.
  
  
• NY-13: Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), the chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is running for his sixth term at 71. The district covers Upper Manhattan, Harlem, and parts of the Bronx. He is being challenged by community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier, a 32-year-old progressive Democratic Socialist backed by Mamdani. She is the daughter of Dominican immigrants and opposes all deportations, including those of criminals. She has posted many inflammatory tweets, including one in which she called Joe Biden a rapist. Espaillat hasn't attacked her much but has focused on what he has done, and can actually do, for the district. For example, he brought in $7.7 billion for the Second Avenue subway and is focused on trying to bring in money for affordable housing. He has said a fresh new representative will have zero ability to bring home any bacon.
  
  The Hispanic Caucus is not amused with Chevalier's challenge and is spending big time to save its chairman. A pro-Palestine super PAC, American Priorities, has spent $500,000 supporting Chevalier.
  
  Democrats are badly split on this race. Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and Velázquez support Espaillat, along with many state and local officials, unions, and organizations, including AIPAC, the Congressional Black Caucus, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood, and more. Chevalier is supported by former Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D), a few state and local officials, Kat Abughazaleh, Hasan Piker, and a dozen organizations, including the Council on American-Islamic Relations, Justice Democrats, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and the Sunrise Movement. Israel and generational change are big issues here.
  
  
• NY-17: This D+1 district in the lower Hudson Valley is represented in the House by Mike Lawler (R-NY), one of only three Republicans in districts Kamala Harris carried. Democrats smell blood here. The frontrunners are Army vet and cybersecurity expert Cait Conley (D) and Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson (D). Veterans groups are supporting Conley along with a number of House Democrats. Republicans are apparently worried about her so there is some rodent reproduction going on here, with a Republican-aligned super PAC, Progressive Champions, opposing her. Davidson has the support of former NY-17 Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) and a few others. Conley has raised the most money and is leading in recent polls. Whoever wins will have a tough fight against Lawler, who has raised $6.7 million.
  
  
• NY-21: This is the district from which Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is retiring. It covers most of the thinly populated northern part of the state. Given the R+10 PVI, the Republican primary is getting the most attention, Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani have endorsed the very Trumpy Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino (R), who was previously a lifelong Democrat. He is running against retired Marine Corps colonel and Assemblyman Robert Smullen (R). The two of them are calling each other liars and are threatening to sue one another. It is really, really nasty. The state Republicans are strongly for Smullen, who has good credentials as a dependable conservative Republican. So what do the voters want: an experienced conservative or someone whose only argument is "Trump loves me"? This could be a preview of other races this year and in 2028. This split has given the Democratic candidate, dairy farmer Blake Gendebein, a tiny bit of hope.
  

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has kept a low profile. In 2022, she was politely, but firmly, informed, that campaigning against sitting members of the House was not going to win friends and influence people, at least not House members. She got the message.

The governor's race is set. It is Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) vs. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. There is no Senate race in New York this year, but 2028 could feature a humdinger if Ocasio-Cortez decides to jump in to challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) will probably face either former state delegate Dan Cox (R) or retired banker Ed Hale (R) in November. It won't matter, Moore will win. There is no Senate race this year. The only interesting House race is MD-05, from which Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) is retiring after serving for 45 years. The district is D+17 and 23 Democrats have filed for it. The leading Democratic candidates are state Del. Adrian Boafo (D), assisted living care center owner Quincy Bareebe (D), and former Capitol police officer Harry Dunn (D). Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), Hoyer, and most of the Democratic establishment are behind Boafo. Bareebe and Dunn have the most money, with Boafo third. There has been only one recent poll and "undecided" is leading with 43%.

In Utah, there are no elections for senator or governor and three of the four House districts are solid Republican. The court-ordered map makes UT-01, which covers most of Salt Lake County, competitive for Democrats. The progressive favorite, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, is state Sen. Nate Blouin (D). The establishment favorite is former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams (D). McAdams has raised 3x more money than Blouin and has a modest lead in the polls. The winner will face former White House policy analyst Riley Owen (R).

Nevertheless, due to the new map, the Republican nominations are being contested in two districts. In UT-02, Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT), who currently represents the old UT-01, is being challenged by state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R). Lisonbee has attacked Moore for supporting an independent commission to draw the maps. She wants to gerrymander the hell out of the map and make sure there are four Republicans elected.

In UT-03, lawyer Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) won a special election in 2023. A year later, she won the Republican primary by 176 votes out of 107,000. She has Donald Trump's endorsement. She is being challenged by former state Rep. Phil Lyman (R). Both are conservatives. Lyman's issue is opposition to water-slurping data centers in the desert district. Naturally, the AI industry is behind Maloy,

Finally, there are runoffs in South Carolina. Donald Trump couldn't figure out whether Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R-SC) or South Carolina AG Alan Wilson (R) was going to win the runoff for the Republican nomination for governor of South Carolina, and since he didn't want to lower his batting average, he cleverly endorsed both of them. Smart, no? Gotta hand it to him.

There is also a runoff for AG between State Sen. Stephen Goldfinch (R) and Eighth Circuit Solicitor David Stumbo (R), and also one for Republican nomination for commissioner of agriculture

The race for the seat of Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) has runoffs on both sides. The Republicans are Charleston County Councilor Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith. On the Democratic side, three-star admiral Nancy Lacore is battling veteran Mac Deford. (V)