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47
GOP
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U.S. supernegotiators J.D. Vance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Switzerland yesterday to have it out with the speaker of Iran's parliament, Bagher Ghalibaf, and Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be the referee. The nature of the venue has not been revealed. Donald Trump does have a slightly used octagonal ring with a claw on top available, if need be.
One key issue (other than how to proceed with the surrender) is the fighting in Lebanon. Iran thinks Trump should order Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cut it out, even though Israel and Hezbollah did not sign the surrender document (MOU). Israel's interests here are very different than Trump's personal interests. All Trump cares about is winning the midterms. While Israel is also having elections in the fall, Netanyahu doesn't think giving away the farm is in his interest, so he will resist as best he can.
Another key issue is Iran's nuclear program. Put simply, Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon it can use to threaten (and potentially destroy) Israel. The U.S. doesn't want Iran to do so. The likely compromise will be for Iran to build a nuclear weapon but not test it before Nov. 4, 2026, and maybe not until Nov. 8, 2028. Getting Iran to give up its dream of dominating the Middle East is not going to be easy, because Vance already gave up the leverage the U.S. had when he agreed to unfreeze Iran's assets, lift the sanctions, and pony up $300 billion in reparations. He should have read that best seller The Art of the Deal, written by Tony Schwartz. Point 1: Don't give up all your leverage on Day 1 while getting little in return.
One strategy Vance could use is to do what Trump always does and renege on deals that have already been signed. He could tell the Iranians: "Sorry, but the Senate majority leader has told me that the MOU is unacceptable as is and the votes aren't there to ratify it. But if you sweeten the deal with all your uranium, maybe he'll go for that." We doubt Vance is capable of pulling this off, though.
Trump just came up with a new plan, however. He tossed out the idea of the U.S. charging tolls in the Strait if there is no deal by the 60-day mark. He didn't go into the details, but maybe one-third for Iran, one-third for the U.S. Treasury, and one-third for Trump personally. Would Iran consider that? If that goes through, how long will it take for Morocco to start levying tolls on traffic through the Strait of Gibraltar? After all, that strait is only 10 miles wide vs. 55 miles for the Strait of Hormuz. Then Yemen and/or Djibouti could put tolls on the 14-mile-wide Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, which must be passed to get to or from the Suez canal. There are lots of opportunities worldwide for coastal nations to claim international waters as their very own.
There was lots of bluster and grandstanding from Vance on Sunday, but no agreement on anything. After 80 minutes of watching this, the Iranians left. Given how far apart the two sides are, it is unlikely that any progress will be made until the end of the 60-day period on Aug. 16. Then there could be a couple of overtime periods. If the U.S. has already released the promised funds, it is hard to see why Iran would give in on anything. Of course, the U.S. could stall, saying Trump wants to transfer the funds personally and he needs a bit of time to learn how to use a computer and do online banking. Also, he needs to learn about Arabic numerals (yes, we know Iran is not an Arab country, but Trump probably doesn't). It is going to be a long and messy process and in the end, could well fail. On Face the Nation yesterday, Sen Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said he expects the negotiations to fail. He also compared the $300 billion reparations provision in the MOU as comparable to the Marshall Plan for post-war Germany—but with the Nazis still in charge. (V)