Dem
47
GOP
53
Many senior Republicans are in dismay about Donald Trump's promise to set up a $300 billion reparations fund for Iran. They don't expect the Sunni Arab countries to pitch in to help Shiite Iran and they know Russia, China, and the E.U. have zero interest in that project. That leaves them on the hook and they don't like it.
Many of the Republican senators are skeptical about any deal since the U.S. already gave up all its leverage in the Memorandum of Understanding. Trump could have conditioned sanctions relief, unfreezing funds, and other goodies on Iran giving up all of its uranium, but he didn't and is now blaming J.D. Vance. Someone in the White House ought to buy Trump a book about the art of making deals.
One thing senior Republican senators could do is to go on television and simply state: "The president is currently negotiating a treaty with Iran. However, the Constitution clearly states that treaties with foreign countries go into effect only after the Senate has ratified them. I look forward to getting the exact text of the proposed treaty, which I will read carefully before deciding how to vote on it." Then when Trump asked the Senate to fund Iran's $300 billion slush fund, the senators could say: "Sorry, but we haven't ratified the treaty yet and we have a couple of issues with it you need to fix."
Senior Republicans are afraid that Trump will try to bypass the Senate entirely and they don't have the guts to tell him that treaties must be ratified by the Senate. Of course, then the current armistice could just continue indefinitely.
Republicans are also uneasy over Iran's missile stockpile, which is estimated to be at 70% of its pre-war capacity. Also, the MOU is very one-sided in favor of Iran, and senators have noticed. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is furious about the deal. He said it is out of step with the goal of neutralizing Iran's threat to U.S. national security. He is also against forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon until Hezbollah is starved of funds. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) thinks some aspects of the MOU are steps in the wrong direction. He doesn't want to unfreeze Iranian assets and lift sanctions without getting something pretty big in return. He estimated that Iran will earn $50-70 billion/year on oil sales and spend it all on new weapons. He is also opposed to Iranian tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. He wants to use the U.S. military to force Iran to accept a better deal for the U.S.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) said: "I think getting the Strait reopened is good. But I would not want to give them [the Iranians] money." Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is concerned about the $300 billion for Iran. She said: "I have to know where that money is coming from because I don't think my constituents are going to be really happy about it if that's all U.S. taxpayer dollars." Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) said the sanctions "should probably snap back at the earliest opportunity." Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said: "We're in a place where there is a deal that has been signed but it doesn't appear to me that it puts us in that much different of a position than prior to the beginning of the war. A lot of money has been spent, lives have been lost and yet you have Iran in a place where it almost looks like this is where they were before." She also noted that Iran does not have a good track record keeping its promises.
From these and other comments, it seems unlikely that a treaty based on the MOU could be ratified by the Senate. But if there is no ratified treaty, where is the $300 billion coming from? One possibility is for Trump to tell the Iranians: "You earn $60 billion/year from oil sales. In five years, there's your $300 billion." From Iran's point of view, getting back the $24 billion in frozen funds and the end of the sanctions, that might be good enough, especially if Iran begins charging tolls for passage through the Strait.
We are far from out of the woods (or whatever the maritime equivalent of a woods is) now. Maybe reflecting-pond algae? On Thursday, 25 ships moved through the Strait. On Friday it was 11. On Saturday it was 22. Then Iran closed it again because Israel and Hezbollah—neither of which signed the MOU—continue to fight. (V)