Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday morning, Donald Trump got on his social media platform for those who think the wrong side won in World War II and shared this observation:
Keir Starmer will resign as Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. He failed badly on two very important subjects- IMMIGRATION AND ENERGY (OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!). I wish him well! President DJT
Does Trump have inside information? Is he just wishcasting? Somewhere in between? You never know with him.
That said, there is a chance that Trump proves to be correct, as the there is considerable scuttlebutt that Starmer could stand down sometime this week, perhaps as early as today. To understand what's going on, we turned to regular across-the-pond correspondent S.T. in Worcestershire, England, UK:
There were three by-elections for the U.K. parliament last week (Thursday the 18th). Two were in Scotland and arose because a couple of prominent Scottish Nationalist MPs—Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins—won seats in the Scottish Parliament back in May. As members serving in both parliaments simultaneously is unlawful, the duo resigned their Westminster seats.
In both by-elections, the turnout was low and Labour's vote fell heavily. The SNP easily retained Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, which was Gethins' seat, but things were somewhat different in Flynn's seat of Aberdeen South. The Conservatives gained the seat from third place, their first by-election win in Scotland since 1967! And they won big—a majority of over 6,000 votes, a lead of 20%. Aberdeen is the UK's center for the North Sea oil and gas industry. Partly due to environmental concerns, the future development of smaller, marginal oil fields has become a hot political topic. By running an established local candidate—Douglas Lumsden—on a "Drill, baby, drill!" platform, the Conservatives seem to have pulled off quite a coup.
These contests were overshadowed, however, by the one at Makerfield in Greater Manchester, which dominated national coverage (at least outside of northeast Scotland) and even saw the International media taking an interest—up to and including John Oliver!
Thankfully, the officials at Wigan Metropolitan Council were somewhat quicker at counting than their Californian counterparts and the result was declared around 3:09 a.m., the polling stations having closed at 10.00 p.m. The result was correctly forecast by several constituency opinion polls during the contest, which foresaw a two-horse race between Labour's Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester Mayor and "King of the North", and Reform's Robert Kenyon, who was trying to build on a strong second place in the 2024 General Election. It proved less of a race than anticipated. Unusually for a UK by-election, turnout increased, by 6%, and the beneficiary was Burnham ,who won by a majority of just over 9,000 and took 55% of the vote.
The pundits will doubtless spend many days analyzing this result, but three factors stand out. First this shows the strength of Burnham's personal vote on his home patch and the success of a campaign which effectively saw him running against some of the policies of his own government. In the May local elections, Labour only received 27% of the vote in Makerfield: Burnham doubled that. Secondly, although Reform did increase their vote slightly and were hampered by another right-wing populist party, Restore, who got 7% of the vote, it seems that that there is a "plateau effect" at play here. Above a certain level, Reform struggle to get additional votes. Thirdly, and to add to their woes, there is clear evidence that, given a clear frontrunner, people will vote tactically to stop Reform winning. In the 2024 General Election, the combined vote of the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens in Makerfield was 22.1%. At the by-election, their combined vote fell to just 3.1%, an almost unheard of squeeze.
So, what happens next? Burnham has clearly been contesting the seat as Prime Minister presumptive and it is widely anticipated that, now he is once again an MP, he will launch a campaign to replace Keir Starmer within days. He should have little difficulty in gaining the support of one fifth of Labour MP's (81) that he needs to launch a challenge. It is, however, the case that he (or she) who wields the dagger does not always ascend to the throne, so an over-hasty challenge could raise questions of loyalty and might backfire.
Further, if challenged, Starmer, as party leader, will automatically be eligible to stand. To date he has, despite his personal unpopularity among the U.K. electorate, Labour Party members, and large tranches of Labour MPs, indicated that he will contest any attempt to replace him. Should the Burnham bandwagon really get rolling, the PM might reconsider this and decide that a dignified withdrawal would be best. He may, however, take some encouragement from the fact that a sitting Labour prime minister has never been removed by his colleagues in a leadership contest and, having led the party to a landslide majority two years ago, albeit on a low share of the national vote, he might be able to rely on some residual loyalty.
Even if Starmer decides to stand down, Burnham may face a contest. Any serious challenger or wannabe needs the support of one-fifth of their parliamentary colleagues to contest the leadership. A good result in the contest may show sufficient support to secure a cabinet level post, or lay down a marker as a potential serious challenger in future contests. Burnham himself, during his previous period as MP, twice stood in leadership contests, coming fourth in 2010 and second in 2015 (though the level of support needed for nominations was lower on those occasions).
Camp Burnham will, in particular, be wary of two possible contenders. The first, and very much the favorite of the right wing of party, is Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary during Starmer's "wobbly week" after the disastrous May local elections. The fact that he did not immediately launch a challenge at that point has been taken by some as an indication that he was unable to reach 81 supporters needed to go forward. The right of the party will, however, want someone in the contest and Wes is the obvious choice. He has already suggested that he will try to trigger a contest next week if no-one else steps forward.
It is also worthwhile to keep an eye on former Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, who resigned from that post and the cabinet last year. The reason was a tangled and downright confusing property tax dispute. That has now been resolved: Angie has had to pay a higher rate of tax, yet the tax authorities have confirmed that she had taken reasonable care so will not face any fine or penalty (told you it was confusing!). She too has been on maneuvers, though she has not indicated to date whether she will try to run. Certainly, she still sees herself as having an influential role in the party going forward. On the face of it, she is handicapped by having a similar geographical (Greater Manchester) and ideological base (soft Left) as Burnham. She might, however, be tempted to point out that, a mere 51 years after the Conservatives elected their first female leader, the Labour party has yet to do so, and with the parliamentary party now having 190 female MPs, that could strike a chord.
Once the candidates have received sufficient support to qualify, it's over to the party members, who tend to be to the left of the parliamentary party, to choose their next leader using a ranked voting system. First to 50% wins and that person, as leader of the majority party in the House of Commons, will become Prime Minister. There is no requirement to go to the electorate for a new mandate.
Thanks, S.T.!
If Starmer does stand down this week, then the U.K. will move on to its seventh PM in 10 years. It's not just the U.S. that's in the middle of a "throw the bums out" era right now. (Z)