Dem
47
GOP
53
Lots of elections yesterday, and lots of storylines. But the biggest storyline involves New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who backed three somewhat risky horses in races for the House of Representatives, and went 3-0. Here's a rundown of the most notable results:
The Trifecta: Mamdani endorsed three lefty candidates in three very lefty New York City districts. Those districts are NY-07 (D+25), where Assemblywoman Claire Valdez (D) defeated Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, 56.1% to 35.8%; NY-10 (D+32), where former city comptroller Brad Lander (D) defeated Rep. Dan Goldman (D), 65.8% to 34%; and NY-13 (D+32), where doctoral student and public defender's office staffer Darializa Avila Chevalier (D) defeated Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D), 49.4% to 45.9%.
One does not want to overstate Mamdani's power to sway elections. Obviously, as with Donald Trump, his influence is limited to certain kinds of districts. A Mamdani endorsement is not going to be an asset in, say, ME-02. Further, two of the three races were so lopsided, Mamdani could not plausibly have been decisive. Oh, and there were plenty of races yesterday, even in NYC, where the establishment candidate won. That said, going 3-0, and knocking off two incumbents, is nonetheless impressive. By contrast, Donald Trump has endorsed in many more races, and has only managed to just equal the total that Mamdani put up yesterday (Trump helped knock off Dan Crenshaw, R-TX, and Thomas Massie, R-KY). This is because Mamdani takes some risks, whereas Trump largely does not.
It is also worth noting that all three of the races were substantially impacted by the issue of Israel, with criticism of that nation central to the platforms of each of the three lefty winners. In a story that speaks to the salience of Israel, the now-defeated Goldman was banned from a Brooklyn coffee shop on Monday because he is pro-Israel, and because he (allegedly) accepted money from AIPAC. Alan Dershowitz, who is desperately trying to remain relevant, has announced that he will file suit on Goldman's behalf. It would seem that Dersh did not learn in law school that "political ideology" is not a protected class.
What does this presage for 2026 and, more importantly, for 2028? It is possible that Israel/AIPAC will remain salient, and will divide Democrats the way that they did in 2024 (to the detriment of Kamala Harris). On the other hand, it's also possible that because of the violence with Hamas, and now the violence with Hezbollah, the worm has turned, and skepticism of Israel has become the dominant (or, at least, an acceptable) position in the Democratic Party. If so, that would be good news for the blue team, which would prefer to be relieved of one of its most divisive wedge issues.
Governor, South Carolina: We'll get back to the many House races (in New York and elsewhere), but we do generally try to list these election results in order of significance, and governors generally have more impact than representatives do. So, in South Carolina, the Trump-endorsed state AG Alan Wilson (R) won the runoff in a walk, outpacing the Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R) 68.6% to 31.4%. It's South Carolina, which has a PVI of R+8 and hasn't elected a Democrat as governor in the 21st century, so Wilson will be the state's next governor barring some miracle.
Readers will not be surprised to learn that Trump has already taken credit for Wilson's victory. As soon as the results were in, the President hopped on his powered-by-Viagra social media platform and posted this:
Notice, in particular, how Trump's picture is larger than the actual winner's picture.
Despite the propagandizing to the contrary, we would argue this was actually a loss for Trump. Again, he endorsed both candidates. And he endorsed the loser (Evette) long before he endorsed the winner (Wilson). Indeed, as we noted Monday, he only endorsed Wilson this weekend, by which time it was obvious Wilson would win. In other words, the endorsement was about saving face and protecting Trump's batting average, and it clearly was nowhere near decisive. Trump's REAL candidate, the one he backed for months and months, went down in flames. He is at his most efficacious in races where there are three or more Republicans running, and he can tell the base which is the Trumpiest one of all. The President is far less impactful in two-way races between Republicans, and he's largely toothless in any other kind of race (unless he anti-endorses a Republican in a general election contest).
Governor, Maryland: As expected, Gov. Wes Moore (D) cruised to re-nomination, with 87.8% of the vote. He will face former state legislator Dan Cox (R), who won that side of the primary with 45.2% of the vote. This is a rematch of the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election, where Moore trounced Cox, 64.5% to 32.1%. Further, around 500,000 Democrats cast ballots in this primary, as compared to fewer than 250,000 Republicans. So, you don't need to tell us who is going to win in November.
NY-01: This seat is one that exists at the edge of a hypothetical blue tsunami in November. It's on Long Island, is R+4, and incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota (R) is running for reelection. It will only be in play if anti-incumbent sentiment is extremely strong. The Democrat who will be crossing his fingers and hoping for the best is Chris Gallant, an openly gay firefighter who used to fly helicopters for the National Guard. Two very different conceptions of masculinity represented there. He's running on kitchen table issues, especially the cost of living and health care.
NY-03: This district is EVEN, and so will get a lot of attention from both parties. It's held by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who easily won renomination yesterday with nearly 80% of the vote. He will square off against former state assemblyman Mike LiPetri (R), who ran for the U.S. House in 2022 and lost, and who then challenged Suozzi in 2024 and lost again, 52% to 48%. LiPetri's main issue is "I wuv Donald Trump." We don't love his chances, but all the race raters have this district as Leans/Tilts Democratic, so maybe they see something we don't.
NY-04: Rep. Laura A. Gillen (D), in the middle of her first term in the House, is going to try to hold onto this D+2 district. She will face Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes Jeanine C. Driscoll (R). We have never heard of that job, but we assume it outranks Associate Dogcatcher. Frankly, it sounds more like a job you would find in Robin Hood than in 21st century America.
In any event, Driscoll has held the post since 2019. She says her main priority is to "enhance the quality of life of Nassau County residents." As opposed to all the politicians whose goal is to make their constituents' lives worse. The main way in which Driscoll wishes to achieve this goal is by "securing our southern border." Inasmuch as the border, at its nearest point, is a mere 1,865 miles from NY-04, we can see how securing it would definitely represent a radical change in the lives of Nassau County residents.
NY-12: A D+33 district that is not going to be in doubt in November. However, Rep. Jerrold Nadler is vacating it after more than 30 years, and so there was a fierce competition for the nomination to succeed him. Assemblyman Micah Lasher ran a garden-variety Democratic campaign. Assemblyman Alex Bores built his campaign around reining in Big Tech, and Big Tech responded by running millions in anti-Bores ads. Jack Schlossberg ran on a platform of "John F. Kennedy was my grandpa." George Conway's platform is "I am a Republican-turned-Democrat who really hates Trump."
Lasher won in a fairly close one, taking 39.1% of the vote to 35% for Bores. Schlossberg finished third, with just 10.8%. Conway finished a distant fifth, at 6.1%. So, Lasher will be your next representative from NY-12.
NY-17: This is a D+1 district represented by a Republican, namely Rep. Mike Lawler. The Democrats are looking at this one and licking their chops. Admittedly, because we're talking Democrats here, it's probably Beyond Meat pork-style chops.
We had a report from reader E.H. in Ossining, NY, about the dynamics of the Democratic primary (Lawler was unopposed), which we'd like to pass along:
The Democratic primary boiled down to three candidates: Effie Phillips-Staley, a Westchester town trustee and the most progressive candidate; Cait Conley, a recent arrival to the district whose credentials are a West Point degree, service in the military, and a NatSec position in the Obama administration; and Beth Davidson, a Rockland County elected official.
Most of the people I know (including me) have a strong preference for Phillips-Staley, feeling that her platform most closely aligns with their values. And yet none (again, including me) are voting for her. Everyone is focused on who can beat Lawler as the only thing driving their vote, and the consensus is that she can't win, while either of the other two can. The other people I know are evenly divided between Conley and Davidson. Conley seems to be the better retail politician and has more ability to command a room and engender enthusiasm from a crowd. The negatives for her are the carpetbagger thing plus some past connections to big tech (AI) during a period when she worked as a NatSec/military consultant.
Davidson has stronger connections to Rockland voters, having been elected over there, so might be able to peel off more of Lawler's base voters. Her negatives are her less-persuasive politicking chops. As far as I can tell, the two of them have near-identical platforms (middle-of-the-road standard Democratic), so the vote is really personality- and strategy-focused. The GOP seemed to be most afraid of Conley, so I went with her, but if Davidson wins, it's fine with me as well. Whoever wins, I'll be hardcore volunteering, along with all the other people in my circle. No one cares if "their" candidate wins, we all just want to get the district back from Lawler.Thanks, E.H.!
The winner here, in something of a rout, was Conley, with 49.5% of the vote as compared to 31.9% for Davidson and 15.3% of the vote for Phillips-Staley. We say again, the establishment candidates also did well in many races yesterday. Conley was indeed the opponent Lawler did not want to face, so he probably didn't sleep too well last night.
NY-18: We feel we should at least mention all the swingy seats, so the D+2 NY-18 makes the list. However, there was no actual contest yesterday, as Rep. Pat Ryan (D) and Jackie Mary Auringer (R), who works for her family's construction business, were unopposed. Ryan's a pretty strong campaigner and fundraiser, while Auringer's platform is pretty fuzzy, so the race raters think the Representative is safe, despite the purple-ness of his district.
NY-19: Another swingy district, at D+1. Rep. Josh Riley (D), who was unopposed, found out yesterday that he will match up against state Sen. Peter K. Oberacker (R). We do not know what Oberacker's issues are, because his website has no issues page. He does say he believes in "common sense," which is a bold stance to take. His biggest accomplishment in the state Senate is securing passage of a bill that declared baseball to be the state sport of New York. As you might be able to tell, we are underwhelmed.
NY-21: This R+10 district, which Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) will vacate in January after 12 years in office, is not really supposed to be in play. However, reader M.S. in Canton, NY, thinks that... maybe...:
In a bitter Republican primary, Trump-endorsed candidate (and loose cannon) Anthony Constantino defeated Robert Smullen, who had been endorsed by most county Republican committees and most "establishment" Republicans in the district, 59.3% to 40.2%. Meanwhile, dairy farmer Blake Gendebien easily won the Democratic primary with 64.7% of the vote.
The good news for Democrats: Although Smullen lost the Republican primary, he is already on the general election ballot as the candidate of the state's Conservative Party. If he stays in the race—he was noncommittal in his concession speech—it could split the conservative vote in a three-way race, and open a path for Gendebien. This has happened around here before: In 2009, Democrat Bill Owens scored an upset win in a special election for Congress when a tea partier (remember them?) ran on the Conservative line and split the conservative vote with an establishment Republican.
The bad news for Democrats: It looks like the number of votes for Constantino in the Republican primary (currently 26,565) will surpass the total number of votes for all candidates in the Democratic primary (currently 23,480). So even if all of Smullen's voters stick with him in the general election (unlikely), the Democrats may not have enough votes even to win a three-way race. Then again, the high-profile race today was on the Republican side, so maybe a lot of Democrats sat out the primary.
More bad news for Democrats: I have met Gendebien in person and he comes across very well, but I listened to his victory speech, and it was awkward at best. He is not a seasoned campaigner, and it shows.
So where is this going? I'll stick with my sense that this seat stays in the (R) column, but as they say, predictions are hard, especially about the future.Thanks, M.S.!
NY-22: Another technically swingy seat (D+4) where nothing happened yesterday because Rep. John W. Mannion (D) and USDA staffer Kailee Buller (R) were both unopposed. Buller's campaign is so focused on kitchen table issues that she calls her campaign the "Kitchen Table Solutions Tour." But a D+4 district, in a blue year, against an incumbent, is no small hill to climb, so the race raters do not like her chances.
NY-24: Another district that, at R+11, isn't really swingy. But also another maybe... district, according to reader P.W. in Springwater, NY:
NY-24 is currently represented by Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), who a few years ago left her old district to run in a safer one. She's most famous for nominating Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, lobbying to make his birthday a national holiday, and taking credit for projects initiated under legislation she voted against. In the past, Democrats have basically given up on this district—14 counties around Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes—but this year there is a Democratic primary. More significantly, a pretty robust local initiative to "Defeat Tenney" has been going on for months, complete with road signs, postcards, community events, etc.
Will it work? Maybe not, but in a blue wave? You never know. At least more of us are becoming aware Tenney spends more time on Fox News than in her district, never has town halls (only unannounced, small, meetings with pre-selected local supporters), and agrees with every unpopular position Trump has taken, from the Big, Ugly Bill, to the January 6 pardons and $1.8 billion slush fund, to the war in Iran. I'm not sure where she stands on the Reflecting Pool debacle, but it wouldn't surprise me if she took a quick dip (or at least stuck her toes in the water) to prove her loyalty to "her favorite president."Thanks, P.W.!
The candidate who will try to take Tenney down is veteran, teacher, and Department of Veterans Affairs staffer Alissa J. Ellman (D), who easily won her primary with 61.7% of the vote. It would seem that Ellman has her finger on the pulse of the district, as her platform emphasizes two things: (1) kitchen table issues, and (2) that Tenney is out-of-touch and generally absent from the district.
MD-05: This is another district that is not at all swingy, at D+17, but has gotten attention because Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) is vacating it after nearly half a century. A horde of Democrats descended, and the winner is the Hoyer-backed state Del. Adrian Boafo (D), who took 32% of the vote in a 24-way race. That easily outpaced second-place finisher Quincy Bareebe, who claimed 18.1% of the vote. Boafo is pro-Israel and was backed by AIPAC and the crypto industry, so those things are clearly not fatal everywhere, even in deep-blue districts. Boafo's victim in November will be Chris Chaffee (R), who identifies himself as a "digital creator" (a description that covers a gamut from "website designer" to "I have an OnlyFans page"), who has run for office several times before, and who has not bothered to put together a campaign website.
MD-06: The one swingy district in Maryland, at least currently, is the D+3 MD-06. On the Democratic side, Rep. April McClain Delaney (D) battled with businessman David J. Trone (D), who held the seat immediately before McClain Delaney. She won the primary, 43.7% to 37.3%. The Republican in the race will be Robin Ficker, who is currently a real estate investor, but who is more famous for being a perennial candidate, a disbarred attorney, and a guy who shows up to sporting events and heckles the athletes. If this is the best the GOP can come up with, it's not a surprise that the race raters have it as solidly Democratic, despite the district being just D+3.
UT-01: As expected, former Representative Ben McAdams (D) easily won the right to run in this now-Democratic district, taking 56.2% of the vote while his three leftier challengers split the rest. The Republican will be Riley Owen, a veteran of both the Navy and the Trump v1.0 White House who takes the bold position that he believes in the American Dream. Cook has not announced a PVI for the district since its boundaries were redrawn due to a court order, but all the race raters have it as solidly Democratic. So, McAdams is presumably headed back to Washington.
SC-01: This district is on the very edge of "swing" territory at R+6, especially since it's a Democratic-friendly year, and since the seat has been left open by Rep. Nancy Mace's (R) ill-conceived attempt to run for governor. The blue team's odds got a little better yesterday, as the Democratic runoff was won by Vice Admiral Nancy S. Lacore (ret.). Lacore was fired by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, almost certainly for sexist reasons, and the district happens to be home to a lot of current and former military. Given that Donald Trump is underwater in South Carolina, it's not impossible that Lacore could win this thing.
Attorney General, South Carolina: Prosecutor David Stumbo (R) spent the last few days of the campaign in the hospital, but it wasn't enough to keep him from defeating state Sen. Stephen Goldfinch (R), 55.7% to 44.3%. South Carolina attorneys general tend to take the lead in filing lawsuits against Democratic presidential administrations, so you might hear Stumbo's name a bit if the Democrats retake the White House in 2028.
State Senate District 46, Maryland: Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) was unopposed in each of the last six elections. This time, he drew a challenge from veteran and activist Bobby LaPin (D), whose sole issue was "Ferguson is trying to stop Democrats from gerrymandering the state's district maps." Ferguson won, but it was pretty close, given that he's an established officeholder running against an unknown: 57% to 43%. We mention it because Ferguson might well take a lesson from this the next time Wes Moore starts talking about redrawing the maps (with the goal of turning the R+8 MD-01, currently held by Rep. Andy Harris, R) blue.
If you were looking for 3,500 words on yesterday's results, well, you just got 'em. The next week will be a little less busy; Louisiana has a U.S. Senate runoff on Saturday, and then Colorado's primary is Tuesday. (Z)