Dem
47
GOP
53
As you can see from our retirements page, 29 members of the House are retiring to run for the Senate, governor, AG or some other office. Twenty-seven states have held their primaries to date and so far, it is not going well for the folks trying for a promotion. Of the 18 who have already faced election, only five have won the nomination they are going for, so they are batting a middling .278. The winners so far are all Republicans, mostly running for open Senate seats. They are Andy Barr (KY), Mike Collins (GA), Kevin Hern (OK), Ashley Hinson (IA), and Barry Moore (AL). Barr, Hern, and Moore are strong favorites in the general election. Collins is probably an underdog against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who is an incumbent and a fundraising machine and Hinson is in a toss-up race against state Sen. Josh Turek (D).
Here is how it has gone for the House members trying for other offices so far:
As you can see, the biggest group (50%) lost the primary outright and another batch (6%) lost in the runoff. This is a historically abysmal record. This year is shaping up to be a "throw the bums out" year. And people really hate Congress and congresscritters. Since 1990, we haven't had a year in which more than 50% of House strivers lost—until now. Usually 25-40% lose their races, not 67%. (V)