Dem
47
GOP
53
A number of Democrats are freaked out (and Republicans are salivating) because three Democratic Socialists won House primaries in D+25 and bluer districts in New York. Some of them are imagining that all of a sudden the entire Democratic Party will move to the left of Karl Marx, leaving Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) far behind in their wake. Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA) is livid abut what he is calling an "orgy of socialism." We think it is a bit early to conclude that. Tomorrow we will get some new data points, thanks to Colorado's primaries.
One key race is for the D+29 CO-01 Denver-based district currently occupied by Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO). Establishment groups are trying to save her from a challenge by Melat Kiros (D), a 29-year-old lawyer who was fired for publishing a letter that says the state of Israel should not exist. Kiros was born in Ethiopia and came to Colorado when her parents immigrated from that country. She is a member of Democratic Socialists of America and is backed by Justice Democrats and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). DeGette is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and no moderate. She is also 68, so generational change is also an issue. If Kiros wins, that would be a bigger earthquake than any of the NYC races last week. The most recent poll has Kiros at 41% and DeGette at 36%, but a minor candidate has 6% and 18% are undecided.
Another House race to watch is in CO-08, where the Democrats think they can knock off Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) in an EVEN district in the northern Denver suburbs. There, state Rep. Tonty "Manny" Rutinel (D), a Dominican Latino, is facing former state Rep. Shannon Bird (D). There is not a lot of difference between the two on specific policy issues, but Rutinel is viewed as the more progressive of the two. Rutinel has said that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. However, Rutinel is 31 and Bird is 57, so age could also play a role here. Current macro trends in Democratic politics favor Rutinel, and indeed, the most recent poll has Rutinel ahead of Bird, 44%-31%, although many voters are still undecided.
If Kiros and Rutinel get the nominations, Republicans will try to make them the face of the Democratic Party in 2026. If they win their general elections, Republicans will forget that they miss having Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to kick around and compare every female Democrat in 2028 to Kiros and every male Democrat to Rutinel.
There is also a race for governor. Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) is term limited. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) got bored with being in a non-functional Senate and decided to go for the governor's mansion instead. His main competitor is AG Phil Weiser (D). Ideology isn't much of an issue since both Bennet and Weiser are generic liberals. They are trying to emphasize minor differences but in reality, they would probably both govern more-or-less the same way. Both want more affordable housing and oppose the spending cap imposed by a 1992 constitutional amendment. Both want to improve education. As to healthcare, Bennet wants to create a Colorado Public Option and Weiser wants to establish universal care. Age isn't an issue either, since Weiser is 58 and Bennet is 61. Although Bennet had a massive 31-point lead early on, the most recent neutral poll (from PPP) has Bennet at 36% and Weiser at 30%. A poll released by Weiser's campaign has their man ahead 45% to 35%. Bennet is not up this year so if he loses, he can continue as a senator and run for reelection in 2028 if he wants to. If Bennet wins, he can delay his resignation from the Senate until after his inauguration and then choose his successor.
Three Republicans have filed to run for governor, state Rep. Scott Bottoms, state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, and former Marine and current minister Victor Marx. Colorado is true blue and too blue for any of them to have a chance. (V)