Dem
47
GOP
53
Polymarket, Kalshi, and various British and Irish bookies allow bets on political outcomes. Some people use the betting odds as a predictor of election results, often with mixed results. The betting odds are not a primary indicator, though, because the bettors are using polling data combined with a dose of wishful thinking to decide how to bet.
Now a consumer group has sued Polymarket for violating a local consumer protection law. The problem is that college-age social media influencers have been hyping how accurate Polymarket is, but without disclosing that they were paid to say that. The influencers have also posted videos showing how easy it is to make money by betting on Polymarket. Only a study by The Wall Street Journal of 1,105 videos showed that the bettors never made the bets they show in the videos. It was all fake and intended to lure people to the site to make bets. After all, no matter the outcome of the event, the bookie always wins.
Kati Daffan, a former FTC official who is representing the plaintiffs, said: "The public deserves to know if what they're hearing is an advertisement or if it's an organic statement of someone's opinion." The FTC says that social media influencers have a responsibility to disclose any "material connection" to products the endorse. In a different study, Politico identified 500 posts on eX-Twitter that failed to disclose a paid partnership with Polymarket. It also discovered that Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber, had funneled at least $350,000 to influencers using his "personal" PayPal account.
In 2022, the Wall Street regulators banned Polymarket in the U.S. but the Trump administration dropped the case. It then acquired a federal license and became legal in May. (V)