Dem
47
GOP
53
For a site devoted to elections (and election-adjacent politics), we have had to make do with microscopic morsels for 15 months: a state House race here, a state Senate race there, usually with tiny turnout. From these tiny tidbits we have had to read the tea leaves. On the whole, they look good for the Democrats, but as we have said, special elections are wonky. Starting tomorrow, we are moving into the major leagues, with the real primaries beginning in three states. Primary season runs until Sept. 15, 2026, then a 7-week break until the all-important midterm general elections. Here is the full primary schedule, which is available in several formats.
As luck would have it, the schedule begins with a bang. Normally boring Texas is going first, along with North Carolina and Arkansas. No Democrat has won a race for any statewide office in Texas for over 30 years, so who cares which Republican is elected to the Senate? This could be the year the Democrats end their long shutout, but it requires Mars to be in the House of Obama and Jupiter to be in the House of Biden, along with all the stars aligning. The odds are low, but not zero.
As fate would have it, both the Democratic and Republican Senate primaries feature a normal, boring, candidate and a fire-breather. Both parties. When was the last time you saw that on both sides on the same day? The Democratic Senate candidates are state Rep. James Talarico, who is studying at a seminary to become a Presbyterian minister, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). Originally Colin Allred was the star candidate and was favored to get the nomination, but he dropped out on Dec. 8, 2025, the final day to file. Politics abhors a vacuum, so Crockett filed the same day, giving up her totally safe seat in downtown Dallas for a shot at a promotion. Talarico had already filed, as had Ahmad Hassan, an Egyptian immigrant who owns a mortgage brokerage company. Hassan is totally unknown and is unlikely to play much of a role in the race. So it is Talarico vs. Crockett.
Crockett is a Black woman. That plays well in downtown Dallas, which was exquisitely gerrymandered to make it a majority-minority (40% Black, 36% Latino) district in 2022, and smoothed out a bit in the recent redistricting. On the basis of big wins in her district, Crockett thought she could win statewide. She apparently didn't notice that the U.S. has recently experimented with a Black woman running statewide in Texas. Kamala Harris lost Texas by 14 points and 1.5 million votes in 2024, and was better known and less lefty than Crockett to boot. The PVI of Texas as a whole is R+6, which means a Democrat needs to sweep the independents because Texas Republicans are not going to vote for any Democrat.
Crockett has a long history of saying inflammatory things, not the kind of stuff that appeals to the independents she would desperately need in the general election. She called Marjorie Taylor Greene a "bleach blonde, bad-built, butch body." There are plenty of things a Democrat can complain about Greene, but attacking her body is a hit under the belt. Crockett called Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) "Governor Hot Wheels," on account of the governor's use of a wheelchair as a result of a large tree falling on him when he was out jogging at 26 and crushing his spine. Crockett called ICE "slave patrols." She compared Trump to Hitler. She implied that Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who is Black, takes orders from his white wife and says "Yes, massa." The list goes on. None of this is a great fit for independents anywhere, and especially not in Texas.
But those are things that will come back to haunt her if she makes it to the general election. Planning to win the primary but lose the general election is not a great strategy for any candidate. She does have hope for the primary, though, because Democrats want a fighter, and a fighter she certainly is. She is running what is effectively a base-only strategy, hoping for a massive Democratic turnout tomorrow. A base-only strategy has worked for Trump, so why not for her?
Talarico is careful and measured and will go over well with independents. However, Texas has open primaries, so independents can choose which primary to vote in. His problem is that the Republican primary is also interesting, so many independents may ask for a Republican ballot so they can vote for the normie Republican, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). A lot depends on which ballot the independents ask for.
The Republican candidates are Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term, Texas AG Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX). Hunt has roughly no chance to get the GOP nomination, but has an excellent chance to get enough votes to force a runoff on May 26. If you squint just right, you might be able to see a way in which he finishes in the top two and ends up on the ballot May 26. But probably not.
Paxton is also a fire-breathing dragon. He is a genuine evangelical and is completely fluent in Evangelical-speak, which helps a lot in Texas. He is also as crooked as the Rio Grande. He has won election statewide three times, as AG in 2014, 2018, and 2022. He could have won again easily, but he decided to try for federal office this time. He is extremely Trumpy, which plays well in Texas.
Paxton has been involved in scandal after scandal for 20 years. In 2008, he failed to disclose his investments. In 2013, he stole a $1,000 pen. In 2015, he was indicted on charges of securities fraud. In 2020, the FBI investigated him for bribery and abuse of office, to which his response was to (illegally) fire four whistleblowers. Finally, in 2023, the Texas House had enough and impeached him 121-33 on 20 articles for multiple kinds of corruption. He was acquitted by the state Senate, almost along party lines, with only two crossovers. In 2025, his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce after 38 years of marriage on "biblical grounds," and it was not because he ate some pork once. Shortly thereafter, the AP discovered that Paxton had claimed three different homes were his primary residence, which is mortgage fraud. That is the charge the DoJ used against NY AG Letitia James. In short, Paxton has more baggage than DFW at Thanksgiving. But boy is he ever Trumpy.
Here are all the recent primary polls. First, the Democrats:
Some of the polls were taken before Kamala Harris endorsed Crockett on Feb. 27. This endorsement has to be taken with a few metric tons of sodium chloride. Does Harris really think Crockett is the strongest candidate to win the seat? Or might she just like the idea of Crockett winning the primary so she can later point out: "See, Black women can win elections, even in Texas!"? Just asking.
Now, the Republican primary.
Here Paxton is the clear favorite, but is far from the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff on May 26. Historically, people who vote against a long-term incumbent in round 1 of a primary don't like the incumbent and probably aren't inclined to vote for him in round 2. Instead they vote for the other challenger.
For the general election, there are six possible combinations and all of them have been polled. Here are the results:
According to the polls, the Republican wins in all cases. But polling general elections in such a fluid race is tricky. Conventional wisdom is that Crockett will not bring in many of the independents any Democrat desperately needs in Texas. Texas Republicans believe this, too, so they are engaging in some all-American ratf**king, boosting Crockett, analogous to the way now-Sen. Adam Schiff boosted Steve Garvey in his 2024 Senate race, the idea being to help your weakest possible opponent. For example, Abbott, who doesn't have to sweat his primary, has spent $3 million on ads linking Crockett to NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, hoping that will increase turnout for Crockett among young Democrats. Abbott is probably Crockett's biggest fan, outside of the three Republican Senate candidates. National Republicans have spent $90 million pushing Cornyn. They are genuinely worried that Paxton is too risky against any Democrat. He is corrupt from top to bottom, and voters, even Republican voters, really don't like corrupt politicians. Talarico is a seminarian and Crockett, though she has liabilities, does not appear to be crooked.
By Wednesday, the dust may have settled somewhat, although a Republican runoff is likely. Still, we will know how well each candidate did in round 1. A few of the key questions that may be answered are these: Is a base-only strategy or a big-tent strategy better? Is it better to be a fire-breather or a moderate? Can spending nearly $100 million on a candidate the voters don't like turn the tide? Will Donald Trump make a last-minute endorsement and will it matter? Does campaigning even matter (Paxton has barely campaigned and run very few TV ads)? Is identity politics alive and well?
That was Texas. It is big, but it is not the only show in town. There are also primaries in North Carolina tomorrow. Early voting ended Saturday. There was a big surge in turnout, more representative of a presidential election than of a midterm. Neither senatorial primary is competitive. Roy Cooper will win the Democratic one easily and Michael Whatley will win the Republican one easily. They have been in general-election mode for months already. Here are the polls so far:
The most competitive House race in North Carolina is in NC-04, in which Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC), who is 69, is facing a primary challenge from a young (32) challenger, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam (D). Allam was born in Canada, but for House elections that doesn't matter. She ran against Foushee in 2022 and lost by 9 points. Maybe this time will be different, as Democrats are focusing much more now on replacing old Democrats with young ones. Foushee is Black and Allam is a Muslim, which could play a role. The district is 25% Black and the Democratic electorate is even more Black.
Both candidates have endorsements. Foushee is backed by Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), the Congressional Black Caucus, and EMILY's list. Allam is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and a number of progressive organizations. If you want a rundown of the issues, here is a list.
Arkansans will also vote tomorrow. None of the primary races look to be competitive, though. (V)