Dem
47
GOP
53
Every election cycle, the two major House PACs (the Democratic DCCC and the Republican NRCC) put together lists of districts where they intend to spend extra money, and where they hope donors will also step to the plate. The lists do evolve over the course of campaign season, as it becomes clear that some candidates don't need extra help, while others are helpless.
The DCCC has just released its first red-to-blue list of the cycle, of a dozen districts it hopes to swing. Here's a brief rundown:
District: AZ-02 (R+7)
Current Incumbent: Eli Crane
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Jonathan Nez, a moderate, and a former president of the Navajo Nation. He ran in this district in 2024 and lost a close election.
District: AZ-06 (EVEN)
Current Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani
DCCC's Favored Candidate: JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine Corps veteran and single mom.
District: IA-01 (R+4)
Current Incumbent: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Christina Bohannan, who grew up very blue collar, but now has degrees in both engineering and law. She lost this seat by just 799 votes in 2024; the closest race of that cycle.
District: IA-03 (R+2)
Current Incumbent: Zach Nunn
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Sarah Trone Garriott, who is a Lutheran minister and a hospital chaplain.
District: MI-04 (R+3)
Current Incumbent: Bill Huizenga
DCCC's Favored Candidate: State Sen. Sean McCann, who has built his whole political career around kitchen table issues.
District: NC-11 (R+5)
Current Incumbent: Chuck Edwards
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Jamie Ager, a fourth-generation farmer whose family farm is called Hickory Nut Gap.
District: PA-08 (R+4)
Current Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Mayor Paige Cognetti of Scranton, whose slogan is "Paige Against the Machine."
District: PA-10 (R+3)
Current Incumbent: Scott Perry
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Janelle Stelson, a former TV journalist. Basically, the Democrats' answer to Kari Lake, except that Stelson is not—What's the word we're looking for here?—insane. Stelson ran for this seat in 2024, and overperformed relative to Democrats statewide.
District: TN-05 (R+8)
Current Incumbent: Andy Ogles
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Mayor Chaz Molder of Columbia, who brags, not unreasonably, that he's twice been elected in a city that is very Trumpy.
District: VA-01 (R+3)
Current Incumbent: Rob Wittman
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Shannon Taylor, the DA of Henrico County, who is running—not surprisingly—a "law and order" campaign.
District: VA-02 (EVEN)
Current Incumbent: Jen Kiggans
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Elaine Luria, who is a 20-year Naval officer focused on—not surprisingly—veterans' rights. That's the sort of candidate you need when the district has several "military towns," like Hampton Roads.
District: WI-03 (R+3)
Current Incumbent: Derrick Van Orden
DCCC's Favored Candidate: Rebecca Cooke, who is both a small business owner and a waitress. Perhaps most importantly, she appears to be sane, which will present a marked contrast to her opponent.
This is a pretty good list of different candidate "types" that are put forward by various factions within the Democratic Party as the sort of candidates that the Party should be running. It will be interesting to see which of them performs well.
Also note that while the DCCC has its preferred candidates, the party does NOT decide in modern politics, at least not as much as it once did. Quite a few of these races have numerous contenders on the Democratic side who could plausibly emerge. To take one example from today's elections, we got a heads-up about the campaign of Dr. Richard Hudspeth, who's up against Jamie Ager in North Carolina. Unlike Ager, Hudspeth has no Nut Gap of any sort, but he does have a platform that appears to comport to the needs of the district very well. If he advances, we won't be shocked. And if that does happen, the DCCC will climb right on board, because it's a very flippable seat, given how many Democrats figure to turn out for this year's U.S. Senate election.
Note that recent court decisions are likely to help the Democrats flip two other seats not on this list. The courts in New York have once again ruled in favor of redrawing the district of Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R), because the current boundaries unacceptably dilute the power of minority voters. The district, NY-11, is R+10, but figures to get into "swing" range (R+5 or bluer) unless the U.S. Supreme Court steps in, and quickly.
Meanwhile, federal courts have once again upheld the new Utah map, which turns UT-01 from an R+10 district into something like a D+10 district (Cook Political Report has not finished crunching the numbers yet). This is why at least nine Democrats are already in and another nine are thinking about it, and why Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) is a dead man walking if he tries to remain in this district. All of the entities that do race ratings, including Cook, have the district as "Safe D," even though it's held by a Republican. None of the raters have yet recalibrated on NY-11, because it's not known what the new boundaries will be. (Z)